Australian Housing showing further weakness

Since 2016, our structurally bearish thesis on Australian housing has taken a while to play out as cyclical data often managed to hold up as the RBA kept policy loose and as the global economy was awash with liquidity. Now, however, as global-liquidity headwinds are...

Data Confirms Short View on Australian Dollar

We have been bearish on the Australian dollar for structural reasons for most of this year. Iron ore prices fell away in September due to China’s attempts to fight pollution as well as over-supply from Australia. More recently, we have seen coincident data rolling...

Short AUDCAD As Proxy China Trade

Although both AUD and CAD are commodity currencies, given Australia’s outsized exposure to China, AUDCAD can be used as a proxy trade on the Chinese economy. AUDCAD is approaching the top of its range just as Chinese liquidity is rolling over. In our March Leading...