MacroVoices #280 Aaran Param: Inflation, Stocks, Dollar, EM, China, Commodities & more | Jul 15, 2021
July 15, 2021, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Aaran Param to MacroVoices. Erik and Aaran discuss:
- Inflation – secular or transitory?
- Where to invest in equity market
- What’s next for the dollar
- How to play EM vs DM
- Perspectives on China
- Bond market outlook
- Commodity super cycle
- Oil, gold & precious metals
Financial Sense: Most Indicators Pointing Towards High and Persistent Inflation, Says Tian Yang | July 13, 2021
Real Vision: Inflationary Pressure & The Incoming Commodity Supercycle | Jan 13, 2021
In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficits invite inflation the likes of which the U.S. hasn’t seen since the 1970s.
In this inflationary regime, White and Yang argue, hard commodities will be a source of massive returns. Their thesis is also shaped by their theories on capital scarcity, in which the less capital is deployed in a sector, the greater potential for return.
Filmed on October 28, 2020.
MacroVoices #243 Tian Yang: A New Commodity Bull Market is Coming | Oct 29, 2020
October 29, 2020, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:
- Inflation driven commodity super cycle – when will it happen?
- When will consumer price inflation starts?
- How to manage your portfolio to prepare for inflation
- COVID-19 pandemic impacts on prices
- How to position for commodity super cycle
- How to approach different commodity sectors for allocation
- Outlook on precious metals
Grant's Interest Rate Observer: Money Gusher | Jun 12th, 2020
Financial Sense: Market Not Discounting Brewing Geopolitical Risks, Says Tian Yang | May 21, 2020
May 21 – FS Insider gets an update from Variant Perception’s head of research, Tian Yang, to discuss their outlook on stocks, the economy, commodities, and much more. Tian says that the current market momentum is unlikely to continue…
Beyond Unicorn: Investing through crisis: Covid-19 Macro market update with Tian Yang from Variant Perception | Mar 25, 2020
Financial Sense: Tian Yang: Consensus Too Optimistic on Coronavirus' Impact, China Facing 'Very Big' Drop | Feb 18, 2020
Real Vision: Modeling the Next Recession | Feb 3, 2020
When will the next US recession begin — and how might investors foresee its arrival? Tian Yang, Head of Research at Variant Perception, breaks down his model for detecting the signals that a significant decline in economic activity is imminent. Yang explains how his framework differs from traditional, longer-term econometric forecasting models and walks through his process using historical data. Using the data series, Yang unpacks how unrevised leading economic indicators can telegraph regime “jumps” and the role of uncertainty caused by reflexivity or positive feedback loops. Filmed on January 22, 2020 in London. You can find the attached report from Variant Perception here- http://variantperception.com/realvision
MacroVoices #188 Variant Perception’s Tian Yang on Tail Hedges | Oct 10, 2019
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:
- Economic and liquidity leading indicators
- Growth slowdown and risks of a recession
- US/China trade war and its implications on the markets
- Translating economic signals into market decisions
- Impacts of Europe/ECB on global market system
- Tail hedges and the risks in the market
- Perspectives on global dollar shortage and the repo market
- Possibilities of QE in Q4
- Recent divergence in value and growth
- Outlook on emerging markets
Capital Allocators, EP.110 Jonathan Tepper - Variant Perception of Capitalism | Oct 7, 2019
Our conversation covers Jonathan’s unusual upbringing, learning about currencies from Big Macs, building economic and liquidity forecasting models, and catering Variant Perception’s research to investors. We then turn to The Myth of Capitalism, discussing the history, causes, and ramifications of the absence of competition in U.S. industries, natural and unnatural monopolies, examples in the tech giants, funeral home operators, airports, and hospitals, and what can be done to counter this negative trend.
Real Vision: The Central Banks' Monetary Policy Is Backfiring | Sep 18, 2019
September 18, 2019
Simon White, co-founder of Variant Perception, explains his view that as interest rates approach the zero bound, conventional monetary policy tools do not achieve their intended goals, but instead create deflationary pressures. He argues that in a negative-rate world, the private sector increases savings rates to combat their lack of income – causing an even bigger deflationary push. White believes that conventional monetary policy is nearing its limits, and MMT will unleash a flurry of inflation as politicians take control of policy. Filmed on September 13, 2019 in London.
Macrovoices: Simon White: U.S. Dollar in the Crosshairs | May 16, 2019
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:
- Variant Perception data driven approach
- Something’s got to give
- Where leading indicators are pressuring USD
- Outlook on US equities and bonds
- Perspective on the Fed’s cut to its IOER
- Collateral, lending conditions and tighter bank-credits
- China, liquidity and growth
- External headwinds remain growth impediment
Real Vision: Risk Assets Have Front-Run Reality | Apr 5, 2019
Risk assets have rallied aggressively in the first quarter of 2019, in what appears to reflect an anticipation that global central banks will repeat the reflation trade that they initiated in early 2016. But Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception, believes that investors may be ignoring the shifts in central banks’ priorities and in the inflation picture that have transpired between then and now. For that reason, the recent divergence between asset prices and leading indicators could leave many markets looking vulnerable.
Filmed on March 19, 2019 in London.
Financial Sense: Leading Indicators and Liquidity Declining, Says Variant Perception’s Tian Yang | Mar 14, 2019
The Felder Report: Jonathan Tepper On The Single Most Important Question Investors Should Be Asking Right Now | Nov 8, 2018
Have we entered a new era of sustainably high corporate profit margins or will they revert over time to more normal historical levels? This is the single most important question equity investors should be asking today and nobody has done more work on this topic than Jonathan Tepper.
Formerly, an equity analyst at one of the most successful hedge funds on the planet, then a prop trader at one of the largest firms on Wall Street, Jonathan today runs Variant Perception, an institutional research service. He also recently published a new book, The Myth of Capitalism, his survey of the profit margin phenomenon and its consequences for investors and citizens alike. In this episode, we discuss the social and economic consequences of increased consolidation and regulatory capture in corporate America and what it means for markets going forward. Jonathan also shares the unique and tragic experiences of his formative years and how they inspired both a strong work ethic and a deep desire to make a difference.
Value Walk: Interview with Tian Yang of Variant Perception | Aug 24, 2018
Financial Sense: Understanding Leading Economic Indicators – Interview with Tian Yang | May 4, 2018
MacroVoices: Jonathan Tepper: Is Retail a Consensus Short or a Contrarian Long? | Dec 2, 2017
Erik Townsend welcomes Jonathan Tepper back to MacroVoices. Erik and Jonathan discuss the outlook on the US dollar, the momentum trade on global equities and VPs contrarian call on the retailers. They further discuss Australian real estate, the Canadian economy and the outlook on China.
Adventures in Finance: 26 - Season Finale: Market Wizardry and the Power of Picking the Right indicator | Jul 28, 2017
Our season finale brings you three world-leading analysts and investors as they share their frameworks and favorite indicators, and help you to become a better investor. Featuring Jesse Felder of the Felder Report, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and Tian Yang of Variant Perception.
MacroVoices: Tian Yang: It’s not time to be short the stock market. Yet. | Jul 6, 2017
Erik Townsend welcomes Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:
- US growth cycle long in the tooth
- US LEI’s holding up but US recession key theme
- US credit cycle has definitely rolled over
- Global liquidity also deteriorating sharply
- China is also rolling over
- Looking at global equities
- Fixed income considerations
- Consideration on the US dollar
- Looking at Europe, Japan and Australia
The Disciplined Investor: The Flaws in Research Explained by Variant Perception | Nov 20, 2016
Guest, Tian Yang of Variant Perception tells us about the flaws in sell-side analysis as well as the pitfalls in economic research. Tian also explains how investors may want to look at specific leading indicators, which he reveals, in order to take advantage of what could be the next move for markets.
Real Vision: Tian Yang - Think Piece | Sep 20, 2016
Tian Yang from Variant Perception Research uses leading indicators to expose where consensus may be wrong, and shows how to profit from any mispricing.