Feb 17, 2021 | Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, Whitepaper
We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle (from a report we issued in October 2020) Main Themes There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen...
Apr 3, 2020 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, US Economy, Video, Whitepaper
The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to: distinguish...
Sep 11, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Whitepaper
Bethany McLean has written a book titled Saudi America on fracking and how it might contribute to the next financial crisis. She writes: Some of fracking’s biggest skeptics are on Wall Street. They argue that the industry’s financial foundation is unstable:...
Jul 29, 2018 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Whitepaper
We recently published a new white paper on EM Crises. In this report, we look at the history of EM crises. How they unfold, and when they become buying opportunities. EM crises have generated some of the largest market sell-offs in the last 25 years. At the...
Jul 19, 2018 | Asia, Emerging Markets, Featured, Framework, Whitepaper
Failing to spot the Asian currency crisis of 1997 would have been disastrous for an investor. In the case of Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, it took almost a decade for equity markets to reach January 1997 levels again in nominal terms. But, how can you see a...
Jun 13, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, Japan, US Economy, US Equities, Whitepaper
Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life… death...
May 10, 2018 | Framework, Leading Indicators, Whitepaper
Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that...
Jun 29, 2015 | European Economy, Featured, Framework, Whitepaper
At the start of 2012, Variant Perception’s research team wrote a paper on the best way to break up the euro. A lot has happened since this paper was written. However, it still provides a clear, solid analysis of the problems leading up to the current situation....
Sep 4, 2012 | Featured, Global Economy, Press, Whitepaper
Variant Perception recently put out a report to the public about Australia, why the economy and currency are vulnerable and why the RBA is likely to cut rates further. The report has gathered a lot of attention from various official media outlets and blogs. The Sydney...
