by Bill | Feb 10, 2017 | US Equities
P/E expansion has been an important driver of US equity returns in recent years. The left chart shows the disaggregation of returns in 5 year blocks going back to 1996. As we can see, in the years 2011-2016, 55% points of the 79% return of the S&P in that period...
by Bill | Jan 27, 2017 | US Equities
In most economic cycles, commodities rally very late in the business cycle, and often oil doubles in price before downturns. Our leading economic indicators are not forecasting an immediate economic downturn, but we are very definitely late cycle on a lot of...
by Bill | Aug 19, 2016 | US Equities
Equity prices are rising and being driven by momentum, but profit margins are set to fall further in line with late-cycle wage pressures and tightness in the labour market. The biggest cost to businesses is the cost of employees, and the unemployment rate leads the...
