Dec 17, 2020 | US Equities
The remarkable resilience of equity markets this year, along with the general bullish consensus for 2021, has some parallels with previous price action in 2009 and 2017 In 2009, equity markets rallied against a backdrop of a terrible economy, but rising leading...
Nov 19, 2020 | China, European Economy, Global Economy, US Equities
Excerpt from November 10th: The US and China are the current engines of growth, keeping the global recovery on track. A vaccine only reinforces the recoveries in China/US, and should eventually put Europe back on a stronger footing The three main engines of global...
Oct 29, 2020 | US Economy, US Equities
The US presidential election on Tuesday is currently the number one event risk for US equities. But investors should focus on two more important underlying themes: positioning and reflation. Markets haven’t whole-heartedly embraced the reflation trade as money...
Aug 6, 2020 | US Equities
Outside of technology and the FAANGs, US equity markets are pricing in a stalling of the economic recovery. The ratio of cyclical to defensive sectors has been trending sideways since the early June peak, as has the ratio of small-cap vs large-cap equities (top-left...
May 28, 2020 | China, US Equities
The collision of two powerful and opposing forces has created an uncertain outlook for equity markets. Aggressive stimulus from the Fed – which Powell says has “no limits” – has caused the monetary base to surge relative to the equity market cap (top-left...
May 21, 2020 | US Equities
“All investing is value investing” according to Charlie Munger, with today’s market continuing to offer more value from the mispricing of existing company assets relative to growth assets. Firstly it is important to point out that exceptionally cheap value stocks are...
May 14, 2020 | US Equities
The overvaluation from long-term averages for US stocks in recent years has been well known to equity investors. Unfortunately, valuations give you no information on timing – they tell you how far you’re likely to fall, but not when. The virus, specifically the...
Apr 30, 2020 | North America, US Equities
There have been five major bear markets in the S&P since the Depression, with each one experiencing rallies along the way that turned out to be false dawns. Each of these rallies felt real at the time, and there was a solid belief that the bad news that caused the...
Mar 27, 2020 | US Equities
Earlier this month, the S&P and gold both collapsed on the same trading day, which is extremely rare. The top-left chart shows that in the past 20 years, the only times gold was down more than 3% while the S&P is down more than 5% was last week and back in...
