No Irrational Exuberance Outside of Tech and the FAANGs

Outside of technology and the FAANGs, US equity markets are pricing in a stalling of the economic recovery. The ratio of cyclical to defensive sectors has been trending sideways since the early June peak, as has the ratio of small-cap vs large-cap equities (top-left...

Revisiting Lessons from China 2015 Market Rescue

The collision of two powerful and opposing forces has created an uncertain outlook for equity markets. Aggressive stimulus from the Fed – which Powell says has “no limits” – has caused the monetary base to surge relative to the equity market cap (top-left...

Upside Inflation Risks Favour the Value Investor

“All investing is value investing” according to Charlie Munger, with today’s market continuing to offer more value from the mispricing of existing company assets relative to growth assets. Firstly it is important to point out that exceptionally cheap value stocks are...

Breadth and Level of Stock P/E’s Remains High

The overvaluation from long-term averages for US stocks in recent years has been well known to equity investors. Unfortunately, valuations give you no information on timing – they tell you how far you’re likely to fall, but not when. The virus, specifically the...

Bear Market Rallies – A Historical Context

There have been five major bear markets in the S&P since the Depression, with each one experiencing rallies along the way that turned out to be false dawns. Each of these rallies felt real at the time, and there was a solid belief that the bad news that caused the...

Narrative Shift Depends on Virus

Earlier this month, the S&P and gold both collapsed on the same trading day, which is extremely rare. The top-left chart shows that in the past 20 years, the only times gold was down more than 3% while the S&P is down more than 5% was last week and back in...

Autos will lag other rate-sensitive sectors

The auto and housing sectors are two parts of the economy that are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. In light of the Fed’s dovish pivot at the start of the year, culminating in 3x25bps of interest rate cuts, we would expect activity in both sectors to surge....

Intermarket Gauges suggest recession or risk-on

The S&P has been very resilient this year in the face of slowing growth, falling earnings and trade war uncertainty. However, underneath the surface, market rotations have been very bearish. Over the past year, high-yield credit has underperformed investment grade...

Momentum under fire as confidence softens

With consumer confidence measures released a couple of weeks ago, we have observed an interesting divergence between the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Conference Board consumer confidence index (top-left chart). When we plot the spread and...