by David Hill | Oct 11, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
With consumer confidence measures released a couple of weeks ago, we have observed an interesting divergence between the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Conference Board consumer confidence index (top-left chart). When we plot the spread and...
by David Hill | Sep 6, 2019 | US Equities
Falling yields across the developed market world have posed greater hurdles for investors with yield and income targets. As the spread between bond yields and equity dividend-yields diverge, these investors move up the risk spectrum to meet their targets. As such, we...
by David Hill | Apr 12, 2019 | US Equities
Short volatility positions are back at extreme levels once again, showing the growth of complacency among market participants. The more dovish than expected Fed has allowed volatility sellers to become more emboldened, and speculative VIX future positions are back up...
by David Hill | Jan 25, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
This post was taken from our January 8th weekly report. We would characterise US equity indices today as being in a bear market. The official definition is a 20% decline from the recent high, close to close, but what does this mean in practice for investors? (The...
by David Hill | Oct 26, 2018 | US Economy, US Equities
We have previously discussed that we see the end of the dollar’s rally coming into view, and that further reasonably-sized rallies (~2-3%) over the next 1-3 months should be used to take profits on long dollar positions. The DXY has rallied over 7% this year, and a...
by Simon White | Jul 13, 2018 | US Economy, US Equities
(from our weekly report of May 29th) Momentum continues to carry the market. Of the main pure factors listed by Bloomberg for the US, it is the best performing on a YTD and a one-year basis (top-left chart). At the other end of the scale, the value factor has...
by Variant Perception | Jun 13, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, Japan, US Economy, US Equities
Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life… death...
by David Hill | Apr 30, 2018 | US Equities
This post is taken from our weekly report dated April 3rd 2018. In our November 28th 2017 Weekly report, we recommended short-term long MLP positions into year-end on bearish sentiment and fundamental divergence of the MLP index vs crude oil prices. This worked well...
by David Hill | Feb 9, 2018 | US Equities
This post is taken from our weekly report dated January 23rd 2018. We are seeing a rotation into equities and out of bonds at the start of this year. BAML, using EPFR data, noted that equity fund flows over the past 4 weeks are up to $58 billion, the largest ever, and...
