by Variant Perception | Jun 13, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, Japan, US Economy, US Equities
Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life… death...
by David Hill | Apr 30, 2018 | US Equities
This post is taken from our weekly report dated April 3rd 2018. In our November 28th 2017 Weekly report, we recommended short-term long MLP positions into year-end on bearish sentiment and fundamental divergence of the MLP index vs crude oil prices. This worked well...
by David Hill | Feb 9, 2018 | US Equities
This post is taken from our weekly report dated January 23rd 2018. We are seeing a rotation into equities and out of bonds at the start of this year. BAML, using EPFR data, noted that equity fund flows over the past 4 weeks are up to $58 billion, the largest ever, and...
by Bill | Mar 31, 2017 | US Equities
P/E expansion has been an important driver of US equity returns in recent years. The left chart shows the disaggregation of returns in 5 year blocks going back to 1996. As we can see, in the years 2011-2016, 55% points of the 79% return of the S&P in that period...
by Bill | Mar 24, 2017 | US Equities
(from our Weekly of 21st February) As we have been noting, the market remains in a risk-on regime, with positive momentum, falling volatility and confirmation from various inter-market relationships such as cyclical stocks outperforming high dividend stocks, high...
by Bill | Feb 17, 2017 | US Economy, US Equities
Higher economic growth usually translates into higher bond yields, higher stocks and rising oil prices; but, too much of a good thing is bad for stocks. Over the past few weeks, we’ve shown that our stock/bond RSI signal has triggered. We now have an Inflationary...
by Bill | Feb 10, 2017 | US Equities
P/E expansion has been an important driver of US equity returns in recent years. The left chart shows the disaggregation of returns in 5 year blocks going back to 1996. As we can see, in the years 2011-2016, 55% points of the 79% return of the S&P in that period...
by Bill | Jan 27, 2017 | US Equities
In most economic cycles, commodities rally very late in the business cycle, and often oil doubles in price before downturns. Our leading economic indicators are not forecasting an immediate economic downturn, but we are very definitely late cycle on a lot of...
by Bill | Aug 19, 2016 | US Equities
Equity prices are rising and being driven by momentum, but profit margins are set to fall further in line with late-cycle wage pressures and tightness in the labour market. The biggest cost to businesses is the cost of employees, and the unemployment rate leads the...
