Sep 16, 2018 | US Economy
The 2s10s yield curve continues to grind incrementally lower, but negative carry is becoming a formidable headwind. One year carry on this part of the curve is a punitive 28bps. We are also seeing the forward yield curve struggling to flatten any more (top-left...
Jul 13, 2018 | US Economy, US Equities
(from our weekly report of May 29th) Momentum continues to carry the market. Of the main pure factors listed by Bloomberg for the US, it is the best performing on a YTD and a one-year basis (top-left chart). At the other end of the scale, the value factor has...
Jun 13, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, Japan, US Economy, US Equities, Whitepaper
Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life… death...
May 17, 2018 | US Economy
Recent data from the labour market and the National Federation of Independent Business shows that wages will be picking up quickly this year. The NFIB compensation plans is now at the highest point in the last twenty years. Small businesses expect to raise wages, and...
Mar 23, 2018 | Global Economy, US Economy
This post is taken from our March 6th weekly report. Once again, trade wars are a potential risk, with Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, and other countries responding that they may impose retaliatory taxes on US goods. The...
Mar 12, 2018 | Leading Indicators, Uncategorized, US Economy
A key risk for investors remains an US inflation overshoot. US inflation breakevens have been rising since the start the year (top-left chart), however we believe this is more a reflection of market pricing returning to fair value than the start of a self-perpetuating...
Feb 15, 2018 | US Economy
This post is taken from our January 30th weekly report. The dollar broke through the critical 90 level on the DXY, after comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin supporting a weaker dollar. (The timing of the comments at such an important level we don’t...
Dec 14, 2017 | European Economy, US Economy
Real rate differentials continue to suggest EURUSD has more downside. We have two ways of looking at real rate differentials. The top left chart shows the 2 year rate differentials deflated using CPI. The top right chart takes the same data but also divides the real...
