Oct 11, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
With consumer confidence measures released a couple of weeks ago, we have observed an interesting divergence between the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Conference Board consumer confidence index (top-left chart). When we plot the spread and...
Aug 22, 2019 | US Economy
Over the last five Fed easing cycles consumer staples, healthcare and energy provide the highest average total return above the index one year after the Fed’s first cut. This is not too surprising given that the Fed started cutting as recessions loomed in 2007 and...
Jun 14, 2019 | US Economy
With the US and Chinese trade positions hardening, market sentiment has swung into risk-off mode with oil sliding, equities weak and USTs bid. Moreover, this has further fuelled speculation that the next move at the Fed will be a cut, with the OIS market now pricing...
Jun 7, 2019 | China, US Economy
With the US-China trade dispute escalating further, we have returned to our previous analysis on export similarity to gauge the potential winners from a prolonged trade war. China’s exports are predominantly low-to-medium tech, which indicates a potentially high...
Feb 15, 2019 | US Economy
US energy equities have been the worst performing sector on a trailing 12-month and 6-month basis (top-left chart), with most names falling below their 200-day moving averages. The top-right chart shows that historically whenever less than 5% of the constituents in...
Jan 25, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
This post was taken from our January 8th weekly report. We would characterise US equity indices today as being in a bear market. The official definition is a 20% decline from the recent high, close to close, but what does this mean in practice for investors? (The...
Jan 18, 2019 | US Economy
This post was taken from our December 4th weekly report. We wrote last week about the absence of bottoming signals for the S&P. From a price perspective, there was little to suggest a sustainable rally was on the cards, as few of the usual signs of selling...
