Jan 14, 2013 | US Economy
With the Fed now targeting unemployment, the market is now understandably even more focused on US labor market releases. The strong fall in the unemployment rate in the US is certainly good news and there is even growing evidence that full time employment is now...
Sep 7, 2012 | Featured, US Economy
The US economy is currently marked by weak manufacturing, but with a housing market showing signs of a sustainable recovery. However, the Fed is focused on the job market, leaving the option open for more quantitative easing if it doesn’t begin to materially improve...
Jul 2, 2012 | China, Global Economy, US Economy
Chinese reserve accumulation has slowed down rapidly. As a result the growth of foreign ownership in US treasuries (USTs) has fallen. The global liquidity pump of Bretton Woods II, in which pegging emerging markets are recycling their increase in foreign exchange...
Jun 26, 2012 | Featured, US Economy
So far the recovery in output, income and employment following the 2008/09 recession has been the weakest on record with only industrial activity appearing to buck the trend. Most remarkable, however, is the steady decline in post-recession expansions of employment...
Jun 11, 2012 | Monetary Policy, US Economy
The US CPI is currently just above target at 2.3%, and long-term market expectations of inflation measured by the US inflation swap curve remains mid-range. This is in stark contrast to all-time lows in nominal treasury yields which appear to be pricing in almost the...
Mar 14, 2012 | US Economy
Cyclically, our indicators suggest cautiousness on the recent improvement in the US labour market. Seasonal factors have likely added a considerably to non-farm payroll numbers due to a mild winter, and this effect will be absent in the coming months’ readings....
