Feb 6, 2014 | Banks, European Economy, North America, Uncategorized, US Economy
Global growth has been well supported going into this year, and short-leading indicators had intimated this would continue into the latter part of the first quarter. However, data has become more mixed with some releases giving cause for concern. Some US data may...
Jan 31, 2014 | North America, US Economy
Gone are the days when financial advisory could boast the same professional stability as a well seated doctor or lawyer. Herding people through the door and offering them a standard 60/40 portfolio invested in the in-house equity and bond funds was a simple and...
Jan 22, 2014 | US Economy
We have been consistently covering the uneven recovery in the US labour market for our clients. In particular, we have focused on the now mainstream concern that although the unemployment rate might have been declining the underlying conditions have little improved....
Jan 13, 2014 | Monetary Policy, Press, US Economy
Variant Perception’s editor Simon White spoke to BNN this morning about the future course of Fed policy and the US labour market. Highlights included the likelihood that the Fed will stay looser for longer as well as how the market may have overestimated the...
Jan 10, 2014 | Featured, US Economy
The last seven months have seen an impressive improvement in US manufacturing. Almost all components of US manufacturing have been growing strongly and the US ISM has staged an impressive comeback from sub-50 in May last year to 57 in December. However, our growth...
Jan 5, 2014 | Featured, US Economy
A nice series of articles from Bloomberg news alerts us to the fact that the Fed is anything but united when it comes to QE. There is consequently ongoing confusion, disagreement and general apprehension surrounding whether and how the Fed is supposed to end QE ....
Dec 19, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
Yesterday’s FOMC saw the first tapering of bond purchases by the Fed, by $10 billion per month. To soothe markets, the Fed also reinforced its forward guidance, making it “stronger and longer”, by a promise to leave the Federal Funds rate close to the zero bound...
Dec 17, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
One of the points we have emphasized to clients in the past two months is that many of our indicators suggest that long rates in the US may not rise as aggressively as the consensus expects. In other words, the Fed might stay more dovish than the market expects and...
Dec 10, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
We have showed the charts below to clients in the past few weeks. There are plenty of things to worry about (stretched market, tapering etc), but these charts are worth bearing in mind for those looking to bet heavily against the market in the next few weeks. Their...
