The Great Releveraging in the US

The headline above is not a mistake; aggregate debt to GDP is now growing again in the US . This is evident if we look at the broadest measure of credit in the US which rose to a new high of $57 trillion USD in the first quarter of 2013. As a share of nominal GDP this...

Earnings to weigh on US equities

Most of the talk on US equities is still centered around whether and when the Fed will start scaling back its asset purchases (let alone start raising rates). The point here is of course that if the Fed decides to remove the punchbowl, equities will take a dim view....

Structural Inflation Pressures Intact in the US

The underlying outlook for inflation in the US continues to point to upside risks in the coming years. Endless discussions between hyperinflationists and deflationists are boring and unproductive. We prefer to look at the data and the data is pretty clear. The...

Short leading indicators suggest strong US data ahead

Short-leading indicators for the US and global economy continue to show very strong signals mainly driven by low credit spreads and strong stock market performance.  In the past two months, we have seen a clear break-out of short-leading global indicators which is...