Oct 10, 2014 | US Economy
Stock buybacks have been an important feature of the equity rally. Companies have used low rates and easy credit to borrow money and used it to buy their own shares back. An identity for a company’s share price is: S = (revenues * margins * P/E) / # of shares. ...
Jul 25, 2014 | US Economy
The key message from our leading indicators is that US inflation and wages continue to turn up. This was one of our core themes for 2014 we discussed in December last year and is bearing out. Core inflation and headline inflation are positive, while wages are...
May 22, 2014 | US Economy
Profit margins in the US have hit modern-day record levels, and this has been used to help justify high equity valuations. Consensus estimates are for profit margins to remain steady, or even increase from current levels. We disagree for ironclad economic and...
Mar 24, 2014 | Featured, North America, US Economy
One of the points we have been emphasizing to clients in recent months is that US small caps are looking increasingly less attractive compared to large caps. Small caps have benefited from excess liquidity and a belief that as the US economy recovers, smaller...
Mar 20, 2014 | Emerging Markets, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
One of the themes we have been tracking in the past 6 months is the slowdown in global money growth and excess liquidity. The focus on the second derivative is important here. The level of growth in liquidity and money growth indicators is decent but the annual...
Mar 3, 2014 | Featured, US Economy
Small business confidence in the US has improved from the depth of the crisis in 2008/09, but has moved sideways in the past 12 months. A return of confidence to pre-crisis levels has been identified by many as one of the key missing components of the recovery to...
Feb 6, 2014 | Banks, European Economy, North America, Uncategorized, US Economy
Global growth has been well supported going into this year, and short-leading indicators had intimated this would continue into the latter part of the first quarter. However, data has become more mixed with some releases giving cause for concern. Some US data may...
Jan 31, 2014 | North America, US Economy
Gone are the days when financial advisory could boast the same professional stability as a well seated doctor or lawyer. Herding people through the door and offering them a standard 60/40 portfolio invested in the in-house equity and bond funds was a simple and...
Jan 22, 2014 | US Economy
We have been consistently covering the uneven recovery in the US labour market for our clients. In particular, we have focused on the now mainstream concern that although the unemployment rate might have been declining the underlying conditions have little improved....
