by Bill | Nov 4, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
Our real narrow money index continues to decline and is sending an increasingly bearish cyclical signal for the global economy and commodity prices. Our real narrow money index has now declined for 4 months running and is now tracking below 7% for the first time since...
by Bill | Oct 17, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Monetary Policy, US Economy
The economy and financial markets remain in the grips of the most easiest monetary policy the world has ever seen. The balance sheets at the Fed and the BOJ continue to expand at record pace and global real rates have been negative for over 3 years now. Negative real...
by Bill | Oct 5, 2013 | Press, US Economy
Variant Perception’s Claus Vistesen was on CNBC last week to discuss the market consequences of the government shutdown in the US.
by Bill | Sep 25, 2013 | Featured, US Economy
One of the most interesting developments across speculative positioning in the past weeks has been the reversal in net positioning in US stock futures. On an unsmoothed basis speculators most recently turned net short S&P 500 futures for the first time since...
by Bill | Sep 4, 2013 | Featured, US Economy
In our latest thematic report, we look at how the unconventional monetary policies of the Fed et al are having distortionary effects on asset markets and increasing their inherent instability. In the classic film The Italian Job, Michael Caine berates his motley crew...
by Bill | Aug 21, 2013 | Global Economy, US Economy
The headline above is not a mistake; aggregate debt to GDP is now growing again in the US . This is evident if we look at the broadest measure of credit in the US which rose to a new high of $57 trillion USD in the first quarter of 2013. As a share of nominal GDP this...
by Bill | Jul 16, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
Most of the talk on US equities is still centered around whether and when the Fed will start scaling back its asset purchases (let alone start raising rates). The point here is of course that if the Fed decides to remove the punchbowl, equities will take a dim view....
by Bill | Jul 2, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Monetary Policy, US Economy
No-one ever said that investing was easy, but when textbook correlations start to break down it can be outright painful. Such of course has been the environment in recent couple of months with stocks and bonds falling in unison. It won’t last forever, but it may...
by Bill | Jun 6, 2013 | Featured, US Economy
The underlying outlook for inflation in the US continues to point to upside risks in the coming years. Endless discussions between hyperinflationists and deflationists are boring and unproductive. We prefer to look at the data and the data is pretty clear. The...
