Dec 19, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
Yesterday’s FOMC saw the first tapering of bond purchases by the Fed, by $10 billion per month. To soothe markets, the Fed also reinforced its forward guidance, making it “stronger and longer”, by a promise to leave the Federal Funds rate close to the zero bound...
Dec 17, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
One of the points we have emphasized to clients in the past two months is that many of our indicators suggest that long rates in the US may not rise as aggressively as the consensus expects. In other words, the Fed might stay more dovish than the market expects and...
Dec 10, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
We have showed the charts below to clients in the past few weeks. There are plenty of things to worry about (stretched market, tapering etc), but these charts are worth bearing in mind for those looking to bet heavily against the market in the next few weeks. Their...
Nov 25, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
Amid the choppy grind higher in US equities one key aspect for investors to look for is the prospect of the long-run relative bull market in small caps to end. If we look at the straight price ratio between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 it is now close to an...
Nov 15, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Monetary Policy, US Economy
One of the themes that we have been highlighting this year is the growing bubble in corporate bonds. It is pointless in the first instance to discuss whether super easy monetary policy that has fueled this bubble is appropriate or not. The main thing for investors to...
Nov 4, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
Our real narrow money index continues to decline and is sending an increasingly bearish cyclical signal for the global economy and commodity prices. Our real narrow money index has now declined for 4 months running and is now tracking below 7% for the first time since...
Oct 17, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Monetary Policy, US Economy
The economy and financial markets remain in the grips of the most easiest monetary policy the world has ever seen. The balance sheets at the Fed and the BOJ continue to expand at record pace and global real rates have been negative for over 3 years now. Negative real...
Oct 5, 2013 | Press, US Economy
Variant Perception’s Claus Vistesen was on CNBC last week to discuss the market consequences of the government shutdown in the US.
Sep 25, 2013 | Featured, US Economy
One of the most interesting developments across speculative positioning in the past weeks has been the reversal in net positioning in US stock futures. On an unsmoothed basis speculators most recently turned net short S&P 500 futures for the first time since...
