Good Entry Point to add to Gold Longs

(from our Tactical report of 10th January 2017) The major sell-off in gold in 4Q16 offers a great tactical entry to buy gold.  Gold has seen significant outflows over the past 3 months: Also January is a seasonally strong month for gold: The macro picture also remains...

US Corporate Debt Near Records, Credit Spreads to Widen

The present calm in high-yield markets is entirely unwarranted and at odds with where we are in the US credit cycle.  Corporate debt to GDP in the US is at all-time highs. In the past, whenever corporate debt reached around 42-45% of GDP, the US approached a...

Crash Signal warned clients January 5th

Variant Perception keeps clients informed of the state of market health with specific buy and sell signals.  Here is an excerpt from a weekly Tactical piece that went out to clients on January 5th. If you are an institutional client and would like to receive Variant...

Profit Cycle Turning Down

The corporate profit cycle is now turning down, and our leading economic indicators point to further declines in return on equity (ROE) and profit margins.  This is not a short-term call on equity markets but a major structural factor investors should bear in mind in...