by David Hill | May 25, 2018 | UK
In our March monthly we recommended positioning for lower UK short-term rates based on our weakening long-leading indicator, and we later recommended taking advantage of GBPUSD seasonality – which has seen cable higher in each of the past 13 Aprils – to...
by David Hill | May 14, 2018 | UK
This post is taken from our April 24th weekly report. Much like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has been itching to normalise monetary policy following nearly a decade of providing emergency assistance to the economy. Buoyed by the run up in prices over the...
by David Hill | Apr 19, 2018 | UK
The tectonic political shocks of the last two years have left UK equities feeling unloved. In US dollar terms, UK equities have returned -5% year-to-date, underperforming the majority of developed and major emerging markets (top-left chart). This is despite the...
by David Hill | Apr 16, 2018 | UK
The synchronised nature of the global economic recovery has fanned speculation that the post-crisis deleveraging in developed countries has finally come to an end. However, we err on the side of caution and cite evidence from the UK, which suggests there has been...
by Simon White | Aug 24, 2017 | UK
Over 60% of the increase in GDP since 2010 has been driven by household expenditure. While nominal household consumption has increased by 25% since 2010, gross disposable income is up just 19%, with the financing gap bridged with unsecured leverage and a drawdown in...
by Simon White | Jul 14, 2017 | UK
UK gilts are overvalued, currently yielding only 1%. The UK has seen a boom in consumer credit in recent years, with rates around 10% YoY in the main categories of consumer lending (top chart). Rising inflation has pinched wages, with the result real wages are now...
by Bill | May 5, 2017 | UK
(from our Weekly report of 4th April 2017) GBPUSD remains range bound, with the triggering of Article 50 last week widely expected by the market. Since the Brexit vote, speculative positioning on GBP has been persistently very bearish; however, the latest Commitment...
by Bill | Aug 31, 2016 | UK, Uncategorized
In this short blog, we will show how we looked at the UK economy going into the UK’s referendum to leave the EU, and why our approach meant our forecasts were not reliant on the referendum’s result. We also show what our indicators are telling us now....
by Bill | Jan 19, 2016 | UK
The UK’s reliance on foreign capital is astounding. This is crucial to appreciate the broad-based decline in sterling we have seen over the past 6 months. As we have reminded clients frequently over the past 2 years and more, the UK now runs the largest twin...
