by David Hill | Dec 4, 2019 | European Economy, UK
With global trade headwinds intensifying and many governments still reluctant to turn on the spending taps (for now), the burden of growth remains with the consumer. In the eurozone, consumer conditions appear relatively mixed. There is a divergence between soft and...
by David Hill | Aug 15, 2019 | UK
UK miners have performed well over the last year, returning 13.4% against the FTSE-All Share’s meagre return of 1.5%. Accelerating iron ore prices this year has driven this outperformance and the top chart illustrates that this relationship holds over long periods. In...
by David Hill | Apr 26, 2019 | UK
Net capital issuance (gross issues less repayments) in the UK has been relatively bumpy since the financial crisis as deleveraging in the financial sector has resulted in prolonged negative net issuance. However, net issuance has turned positive since the beginning of...
by David Hill | Mar 22, 2019 | Emerging Markets, UK
This post was taken from our March 5th weekly report. In line with rebounding equity markets following the 4Q18 correction, credit risk-premia have compressed sharply. This is particularly notable for the big political risk plays of 2018. UK CDS spreads have narrowed...
by David Hill | Feb 8, 2019 | UK
This post was taken from our January 22nd weekly report. In line with the global rebound, UK equities have regained considerable ground in January following the fourth-quarter sell-off. However, consumer staples have underperformed, creating a sharp divergence with...
by David Hill | Oct 19, 2018 | European Economy, UK
The politics of Brexit have enveloped the UK, and have negatively affected UK growth. However, as recent current-account data shows, things are less bad than originally feared. The top-left chart shows that net investment into the UK has continued to rise. The total...
by David Hill | Jun 28, 2018 | UK
The UK’s love affair with housing isn’t over, but it has certainly cooled of late. A combination of increased stamp duty on second homes, fewer tax breaks for buy-to-let landlords, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit have all served to take some of the froth out of...
by David Hill | May 25, 2018 | UK
In our March monthly we recommended positioning for lower UK short-term rates based on our weakening long-leading indicator, and we later recommended taking advantage of GBPUSD seasonality – which has seen cable higher in each of the past 13 Aprils – to...
by David Hill | May 14, 2018 | UK
This post is taken from our April 24th weekly report. Much like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has been itching to normalise monetary policy following nearly a decade of providing emergency assistance to the economy. Buoyed by the run up in prices over the...
