Reflation Sensation

Apr 15, 2021 | Global Economy, Tactical, US Economy

Bloomberg and Google news trends show reflation headlines are everywhere. Widespread coverage is typically a sign that trends are starting to exhaust and that markets are due for a period of consolidation, before the next leg higher Our growth and liquidity LEIs...

Look for Opportunities to Re-accumulate Gold Stocks

Oct 21, 2016 | Tactical

(from our Tactical of 11th October 2016) Goldminers have a notoriously high beta to the price of gold, and they didn’t disappoint last week, with the GDX dropping 13% vs down 4.5% for gold.  However, we have had a technical divergence buy signal for the GDX (chart...

EQUITIES: LOW PROJECTED RETURNS FOR UTILITIES SECTOR

Jul 29, 2016 | Tactical

A theme we have been tracking throughout the summer has been the very low projected returns over the next 6 months for the utility sector globally, as investors have crowded into defensives. We highlight this below with two charts showing the VP Equity Leading...

Rare Buy Signal on Gold; Potential Short-covering Rally

Dec 16, 2015 | Tactical

Over the past three weeks we have had two rare buy signals on gold. Previous buy signals have returned 5-10% over the next month. The signal is a measure of selling or buying exhaustion.  The returns are very good, and while not every single signal works, the odds are...

Market health warnings

Sep 9, 2015 | Tactical

Variant Perception keeps clients informed of market themes, trading strategies and tactics.  For example, here is something we wrote for clients on August 12th before the recent market correction. If you would like to become a client, please contact...

Investors fully invested, but negative

Jul 16, 2015 | Tactical

We have a buy signal on AAII sentiment. Bearish retail sentiment often offers contrarian signals to enter the market and as the top two chart shows there are very few bears at the moment according to the AAII survey. This argues for a short term bounce. However,...

Corn breaks higher; more upside ahead

Mar 13, 2014 | Featured, Tactical

About a month ago, we flagged a buy signal on spot corn for clients. Corn has rallied about 10% since then and more upside is ahead. Corn prices have been a strong downtrend since mid-2012 declining to the same levels seen in 2009-2010 before the rally in 2011....