by Bill | Oct 21, 2016 | Tactical
(from our Tactical of 11th October 2016) Goldminers have a notoriously high beta to the price of gold, and they didn’t disappoint last week, with the GDX dropping 13% vs down 4.5% for gold. However, we have had a technical divergence buy signal for the GDX (chart...
by Bill | Jul 29, 2016 | Tactical
A theme we have been tracking throughout the summer has been the very low projected returns over the next 6 months for the utility sector globally, as investors have crowded into defensives. We highlight this below with two charts showing the VP Equity Leading...
by Bill | Feb 24, 2016 | Tactical
From our Tactical Report of 9th Feb 2016: We like selling EURSEK to play the weak euro theme as the market looks towards the ECB meeting in March. Sweden’s economy is in the midst of a cyclical upturn and leading indicators remain at high levels (top chart). Rate...
by Bill | Dec 16, 2015 | Tactical
Over the past three weeks we have had two rare buy signals on gold. Previous buy signals have returned 5-10% over the next month. The signal is a measure of selling or buying exhaustion. The returns are very good, and while not every single signal works, the odds are...
by Bill | Sep 9, 2015 | Tactical
Variant Perception keeps clients informed of market themes, trading strategies and tactics. For example, here is something we wrote for clients on August 12th before the recent market correction. If you would like to become a client, please contact...
by Bill | Jul 16, 2015 | Tactical
We have a buy signal on AAII sentiment. Bearish retail sentiment often offers contrarian signals to enter the market and as the top two chart shows there are very few bears at the moment according to the AAII survey. This argues for a short term bounce. However,...
by Bill | Mar 13, 2014 | Featured, Tactical
About a month ago, we flagged a buy signal on spot corn for clients. Corn has rallied about 10% since then and more upside is ahead. Corn prices have been a strong downtrend since mid-2012 declining to the same levels seen in 2009-2010 before the rally in 2011....
by Bill | Feb 6, 2014 | Asia, Australia, Featured, Tactical
The AUD has been under strong pressure in the past 12-18 months. A slowing Chinese economy, an unwinding housing and mining boom and a dovish RBA have all been contributing factors. Many of these reasons are still valid reasons to be fundamentally negative on...
by Bill | Jan 28, 2014 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Tactical
Emerging markets are being blamed on just about all hiccups and bad surprises currently befalling the global economy and financial markets. However, this is slightly unwarranted and, in any case, not consistent with the evidence. Out of the 9 equity markets up on the...
