BoJ to Keep Loose As No Immediate Sign of Target CPI

Sep 4, 2017 | Japan

The set-up in Japan continues to favour a weaker yen. Inflation is coming, but the BoJ will want to be sure the train has arrived at the station before stepping off at the monetarytightening platform. The top-left chart shows the lagged effects of a weaker yen should...

BoJ Underscores Support for USDJPY

May 19, 2017 | Japan

Data and policy continue to line up for a weaker JPY. Kuroda has re-iterated his commitment to stimulus, stating, “it’s premature to discuss in an exact way about exit strategy”. Kuroda continues his battle against the deflation mindset; and, as the top chart shows,...

Buy USDJPY Dips

Apr 21, 2017 | Japan

Fundamentals in Japan still support a weaker JPY. Yield differentials are one of the most important drivers of currencies and, as the top chart shows, this shows that USDJPY is becoming stretched to the downside. Also, as we highlighted in our Themes for 2017, the...

Japanese Equity Flows Diverge

Dec 12, 2014 | Featured, Japan

October saw the BoJ’s announcement of increased stimulus, coordinated with the new targets for the GPIF, 25% each for foreign and domestic equities (up from 12% each), and a decrease in JGBs, from 60% to 35% of holdings.  Investors, both Japanese and foreign, have...

BOJ Putting Pressure on Other Asian Central Banks

Nov 17, 2014 | Asia, Japan

Further yen weakness, in an environment of slowing global growth, will put pressure on other central banks to ease policy.  Although attention is rightly focused on the ECB, Japan’s biggest trade partners, who derive significant parts of GDP from trade with Japan, are...

Anti-QE in Japan

May 28, 2013 | Japan

Last week’s BoJ meeting did not meet expectations of trying to soothe the Japanese bond market.  Yields have shot up, with 10y yields 50% higher in May as of this morning, largely a consequence of the BoJ succeeding in raising inflation expectations.  However, of more...

Where Japan Rate Vol Leads, Others Follow

May 17, 2013 | Japan

Volatility in general is still falling, with both equity and commodity volatility lower than their 2005/06 trough.  However, we are seeing signs of life in interest rate volatility.  US rate volatility has recently pipped up, and this has been led by a sharp increase...

The Yen Also Rises

Feb 19, 2013 | Global Economy, Japan

The Argentine writer Jorge Luis Borges has a short a story about two lifelong rivals, villains to the core, who are finally captured by the authorities and sentenced to death for their misdemeanors. The officer in charge of the execution, a gambling man himself,...
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