Housing: the inflation dog yet to bark

Following on from our recent posts on inflation risks, we dug into what specific components could drive inflation higher.  Housing represents an outsized component, comprising 31% of headline CPI and 40% of core CPI in the US. The below chart plots the top CPI...

The Ghost of Arthur Burns

Following the FOMC meeting last week and Fed officials speeches this week, the message to markets is clear: currently high inflation is transitory.  We invert the problem and ask: what if it’s not transitory and what might this look like? Stephen Roach, who...

How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor

Following on from our post last week about the concept of equity duration, it’s a great time to revisit Warren Buffett’s evergreen piece on inflation vs equities. The chart below shows in nominal terms the S&P 500 did okay through the 1970s, but...