Nov 2, 2012 | Asia, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy, Japan, Monetary Policy
The Japanese economy continues to weaken and a recession is now the main consensus. The country’s trade balance, which was long in surplus, is now moving deeper and deeper into deficit and the third quarter numbers almost certainly will show contraction, and these are...
Sep 10, 2012 | European Economy, Global Economy, Press
Our Head of Research Claus Vistesen was on Bloomberg TV this morning to talk about the significance of last week’s ECB meeting and the unveiling of the new bond purchasing programme.
Sep 4, 2012 | Featured, Global Economy, Press, Whitepaper
Variant Perception recently put out a report to the public about Australia, why the economy and currency are vulnerable and why the RBA is likely to cut rates further. The report has gathered a lot of attention from various official media outlets and blogs. The Sydney...
Aug 14, 2012 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy
In principle, a negative current account should not be a problem for Indonesia given the economy’s strong demographic profile, but the slump in external demand will expose the strong credit growth in the domestic economy. A deteriorating current account deficit...
Jul 2, 2012 | China, Global Economy, US Economy
Chinese reserve accumulation has slowed down rapidly. As a result the growth of foreign ownership in US treasuries (USTs) has fallen. The global liquidity pump of Bretton Woods II, in which pegging emerging markets are recycling their increase in foreign exchange...
May 3, 2012 | European Economy, Global Economy, Press
Variant Perception had one guest host appearance on the CNBC today. Head of Research Claus Vistesen talked about the ECB’s rate decision and what it is likely to do in the face of a weakening global economy. We should of course point out that although the...
Apr 30, 2012 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy, Japan, UK
Fiscal austerity in the developed world represents a paradox. On one hand, it is necessary as governments had already borrowed too much going into the crisis and can thus no longer continue to lever up to compensate for private deleveraging. On the other hand, the...
Apr 5, 2012 | European Economy, Global Economy, Press
Variant Perception had two guest host appearances on the CNBC yesterday. Chief Editor Jonathan Tepper was interviewed in relation to VP being shortlisted for the Wolfson Prize for its piece on how and why the euro might break up. Next up was Head of Research Claus...
Mar 30, 2012 | Global Economy
One of the simplest ways to measure macroeconomic risk is to look at the twin deficit, defined as the sum of current account and budget deficit as a percentage of GDP. Recent blow-ups like Iceland and Greece both scored highest on these fronts. Looking at twin...
