Sep 13, 2013 | European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, UK
Data in the UK have taken an unequivocally positive turn. PMIs for services, construction and manufacturing are at 3 year highs. Furthermore, the underlying picture is healthy, with the new orders to inventory ratio for manufacturing surging to 1.4. This has...
Aug 29, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
One concrete example where the recent sharp drawdown in the FX rate may herald better times ahead is in Brazil. As in most other emerging markets, a weaker currency is a double – edged sword. If it happens too quickly it can cause a run on FX reserves and add to...
Aug 21, 2013 | Global Economy, US Economy
The headline above is not a mistake; aggregate debt to GDP is now growing again in the US . This is evident if we look at the broadest measure of credit in the US which rose to a new high of $57 trillion USD in the first quarter of 2013. As a share of nominal GDP this...
Aug 7, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators
Industrial production in the G7 has edged up further and this is in accordance with the OECD LEI diffusion index. G7 industrial production is now growing again and based on the upturn in the OECD LEIs observed since late last year we would expect economic activity to...
Jul 26, 2013 | Asia, Emerging Markets, Global Economy
Since tapering discussions pushed up yields in the US, this has led to a steepening of yield curves across the developed world. The US has seen the greatest steepening, which argues for higher growth in the US ahead. However, the implied tightening in global dollar...
Jul 2, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Monetary Policy, US Economy
No-one ever said that investing was easy, but when textbook correlations start to break down it can be outright painful. Such of course has been the environment in recent couple of months with stocks and bonds falling in unison. It won’t last forever, but it may...
May 21, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
The developed world remains mired in the debt crisis that roiled the global economy in 2008. Growth is low, and deleveraging is an ongoing process. However, the response by policymakers has been strong, and free money is leading to bubbles, the misallocation of...
Apr 24, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Tactical
Judging by the comments from most analysts and commentators, global equities remain the place to be and equity markets are still doing well. This is certainly true if you look at Japan, but in general it is not exactly correct. On a 1 month basis, even the otherwise...
Apr 23, 2013 | China, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
Germany remains the proverbial strong man of Europe, but we are skeptical that this is a fitting moniker. Looking at exports, it is now clear that Germany and thus Europe continues to see weakness. The total value of German exports has now clearly rolled over from its...
