China Losing its Edge on Exports

The meteoric rise in Chinese exports now appears to be losing steam with world export market share falling by 1%-point over the last two years and potentially mirroring Japan’s long-term retrenchment. While the sluggish pace of world trade growth since 2008 has...

If China loses, who wins?

With China taking the brunt of the escalating trade war, we have identified several economies that could benefit from China’s loss (assuming that President Trump continues to focus on China and does not pursue blanket tariffs on all exporting nations). To gauge this,...

Chilean Peso-Copper Correlation Returns

Having suffered at the hands of the protracted drawdown in global copper prices over the course of 2011-2015, Chilean copper production has recovered in line with the rally in prices since the beginning of 2017. This in turn has allowed the Chilean peso-copper...

Global Trade and the Dollar

This post is taken from our March 6th weekly report. Once again, trade wars are a potential risk, with Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, and other countries responding that they may impose retaliatory taxes on US goods. The...

The Anatomy of a Bubble

In addition to our usual shorter blog posts, we will be posting a series of longer, more in-depth posts that illustrate our framework, and explain how we look at markets and the economy.  In this first post, we tour through the work of Hyman Minsky and Charles...
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