Oct 30, 2021 | Global Economy
The bullwhip effect describes how a small change in end customer demand amplifies disruptions upstream through the supply chain. This helps to explain much of today’s global supply chain disruptions, where we see excessive new orders from purchasing managers to...
May 7, 2021 | Global Economy
Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the...
Apr 15, 2021 | Global Economy, Tactical, US Economy
Bloomberg and Google news trends show reflation headlines are everywhere. Widespread coverage is typically a sign that trends are starting to exhaust and that markets are due for a period of consolidation, before the next leg higher Our growth and liquidity LEIs...
Mar 26, 2021 | Global Economy, Monetary Policy
Central banks are adding more ambiguity back into their reaction functions. This points to higher global rate volatility After years of repression, rate volatility is beginning to rise. This is not only a reflection of greater macro-economic volatility, but –...
Feb 17, 2021 | Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, Whitepaper
We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle (from a report we issued in October 2020) Main Themes There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen...
Dec 10, 2020 | Global Economy
Reflation narratives are becoming consensus, but there is little reason to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake Strategists are flooding client inboxes with year-ahead forecasts and themes, and it’s striking how similar the arguments are. The common conclusion from...
Nov 19, 2020 | China, European Economy, Global Economy, US Equities
Excerpt from November 10th: The US and China are the current engines of growth, keeping the global recovery on track. A vaccine only reinforces the recoveries in China/US, and should eventually put Europe back on a stronger footing The three main engines of global...
Apr 16, 2020 | Global Economy
While equities and commodities have collapsed, alongside widening corporate credit spreads, sovereign CDS have not reacted to the coronavirus crisis as might be expected. CDS spreads have widened, but current spreads pale in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis...
Apr 3, 2020 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, US Economy, Video, Whitepaper
The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to: distinguish...
