Apr 3, 2020 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, US Economy
The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to: distinguish...
Mar 19, 2020 | Global Economy, US Economy
A common question in recent weeks is whether today is like 2008? The price action is certainly reminiscent of the wild intra-day swings in the stock market we saw back then, with the level of the VIX, which closed at 83.6 recently, greater than the previous all-time...
Feb 13, 2020 | Global Economy, US Economy
After first inverting last year, the 3m10y yield curve recently re-inverted, prompting the usual slew of mechanical recession predictions. However, not all inversions are equal. The top-left chart shows that almost all of the YTD decline in 10y yields is from the fall...
Jan 29, 2020 | Global Economy
Implied volatility across asset classes has receded in recent months as the barrage of global systemic risks (US-China trade war, disorderly Brexit and the manufacturing slowdown) has dissipated. Even though FX vol, along with other asset volatilities, remained...
Dec 7, 2018 | Global Economy, Uncategorized
Gold has been in a narrow range since mid-August, and is down about 6% YTD in USD terms. It has had several opportunities to sell off more given a hawkish Fed, a rising USD and speculators going net short, but tellingly it has remained quite well supported. Today...
Aug 16, 2018 | China, Global Economy
The meteoric rise in Chinese exports now appears to be losing steam with world export market share falling by 1%-point over the last two years and potentially mirroring Japan’s long-term retrenchment. While the sluggish pace of world trade growth since 2008 has...
Aug 9, 2018 | China, Global Economy
With China taking the brunt of the escalating trade war, we have identified several economies that could benefit from China’s loss (assuming that President Trump continues to focus on China and does not pursue blanket tariffs on all exporting nations). To gauge this,...
Jul 26, 2018 | Global Economy
Having suffered at the hands of the protracted drawdown in global copper prices over the course of 2011-2015, Chilean copper production has recovered in line with the rally in prices since the beginning of 2017. This in turn has allowed the Chilean peso-copper...
Jun 13, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, Japan, US Economy, US Equities
Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life… death...
