How To Identify Market Bottoms

This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020 Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised in retrospect. But this doesn’t make them a quaint academic pursuit.  Knowing a bear market has...

Death by Extrapolation

Extrapolation has killed more people, companies and portfolios than almost anything else we can think of. You assume that you’ll continue to be healthy until you get that cancer diagnosis or fall to the floor from a heart attack. You assume profits will continue to...

Is Fracking Viable?

Bethany McLean has written a book titled Saudi America on fracking and how it might contribute to the next financial crisis. She writes:   Some of fracking’s biggest skeptics are on Wall Street. They argue that the industry’s financial foundation is unstable:...

The Anatomy of a Bubble

In addition to our usual shorter blog posts, we will be posting a series of longer, more in-depth posts that illustrate our framework, and explain how we look at markets and the economy.  In this first post, we tour through the work of Hyman Minsky and Charles...