Recessions and Shocks – Video

The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to: distinguish...

Death by Extrapolation

Extrapolation has killed more people, companies and portfolios than almost anything else we can think of. You assume that you’ll continue to be healthy until you get that cancer diagnosis or fall to the floor from a heart attack. You assume profits will continue to...

Is Fracking Viable?

Bethany McLean has written a book titled Saudi America on fracking and how it might contribute to the next financial crisis. She writes:   Some of fracking’s biggest skeptics are on Wall Street. They argue that the industry’s financial foundation is unstable:...

What’s with the Name Variant Perception?

Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that...

The Anatomy of a Bubble

In addition to our usual shorter blog posts, we will be posting a series of longer, more in-depth posts that illustrate our framework, and explain how we look at markets and the economy.  In this first post, we tour through the work of Hyman Minsky and Charles...

A Primer on the Euro Breakup

At the start of 2012, Variant Perception’s research team wrote a paper on the best way to break up the euro. A lot has happened since this paper was written. However, it still provides a clear, solid analysis of the problems leading up to the current situation....