Jul 17, 2020 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy
Even when the world eventually recovers from lockdown, financial repression will remain a dominant feature of developed-market economies. While markets are immediately focused on how and when economies can escape lockdown, the structural shift towards financial...
Jun 24, 2015 | Featured, Fiscal Policy, UK
The UK’s economy is increasingly beginning to resemble how it looked prior to the financial crisis – this is not healthy and leaves the UK vulnerable to a repeat of the last crisis. In this presentation, we discuss that UK growth did eventually return...
Apr 30, 2013 | European Economy, Featured, Fiscal Policy
The spotlight remained on Portugal the end of last week as EU finance ministers agreed to give the country seven more years to repay its stock of existing loans. Still, despite the words of praise showered on the country the deficit containment record has been a...
Mar 22, 2013 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy
France looks increasingly like it is slipping into recession. It is the poorest performing core country – an increasingly inapt label. Highlighting this are the latest PMI numbers. The services PMI, already woefully depressed, slipped lower last month, to...
Nov 27, 2012 | Featured, Fiscal Policy, UK
The UK Treasury’s decision to transfer coupon income from the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility is a step towards ‘fiscal dominance’, where the fiscal authority ultimately gains the upper hand from the central bank and we see monetisation of public sector...
Nov 2, 2012 | Asia, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy, Japan, Monetary Policy
The Japanese economy continues to weaken and a recession is now the main consensus. The country’s trade balance, which was long in surplus, is now moving deeper and deeper into deficit and the third quarter numbers almost certainly will show contraction, and these are...
Jul 24, 2012 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy
Core European government bond yields continue to fall and are now outright negative in many countries. Traditionally, this would suggest a stern message from the fixed income market that deflation is around the corner. But there could be other explanations. Firstly,...
Apr 30, 2012 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy, Japan, UK
Fiscal austerity in the developed world represents a paradox. On one hand, it is necessary as governments had already borrowed too much going into the crisis and can thus no longer continue to lever up to compensate for private deleveraging. On the other hand, the...
