Nov 25, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
Amid the choppy grind higher in US equities one key aspect for investors to look for is the prospect of the long-run relative bull market in small caps to end. If we look at the straight price ratio between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 it is now close to an...
Nov 15, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Monetary Policy, US Economy
One of the themes that we have been highlighting this year is the growing bubble in corporate bonds. It is pointless in the first instance to discuss whether super easy monetary policy that has fueled this bubble is appropriate or not. The main thing for investors to...
Nov 11, 2013 | European Economy, Featured
There are some notable reasons for near-term reasons for optimism in the UK. The housing market seems to be picking up, industrial production growth is looking up together with PMI data and the equity market has done well. All these are real and significant signs of...
Nov 4, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
Our real narrow money index continues to decline and is sending an increasingly bearish cyclical signal for the global economy and commodity prices. Our real narrow money index has now declined for 4 months running and is now tracking below 7% for the first time since...
Oct 17, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Monetary Policy, US Economy
The economy and financial markets remain in the grips of the most easiest monetary policy the world has ever seen. The balance sheets at the Fed and the BOJ continue to expand at record pace and global real rates have been negative for over 3 years now. Negative real...
Oct 7, 2013 | Featured, Press
Oct 7th (Bloomberg) — Variant Perception CEO Jonathan Tepper discusses the effect a default in the U.S. would have on global growth with Mark Barton and Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”
Oct 1, 2013 | European Economy, Featured, Global Economy
The notion of a perfect storm is a tired cliché but in Portugal’s case, its use has rarely been more apt. Our view is that the market is underestimating the risks surrounding Portuguese debt roll-over and planned exit from the Troika programme in 2014. According to...
Sep 25, 2013 | Featured, US Economy
One of the most interesting developments across speculative positioning in the past weeks has been the reversal in net positioning in US stock futures. On an unsmoothed basis speculators most recently turned net short S&P 500 futures for the first time since...
Sep 13, 2013 | European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, UK
Data in the UK have taken an unequivocally positive turn. PMIs for services, construction and manufacturing are at 3 year highs. Furthermore, the underlying picture is healthy, with the new orders to inventory ratio for manufacturing surging to 1.4. This has...
