Jan 20, 2014 | Featured, UK
UK inflation last week came back to the BoE’s target for the first time since 2009. This should most certainly be a boon for consumers whose average real incomes have been negative for several years. However, our UK Future Inflation Index, which gives a reasonable 6...
Jan 16, 2014 | China, Featured
Investors welcomed the vow made last year by the new Chinese government to reform the economy through a clamp-down on shadow banking and excess liquidity as well as to commit to a strategy of re-balancing the economy. Still, it seems difficult for China to break out...
Jan 14, 2014 | Featured, North America, Tactical
In October we wrote a report highlighting the bubble in Canadian housing and told clients that the currency in particular was under threat. A large current account deficit and the creeping expectations that the BoC might actually be forced into lowering rates have...
Jan 10, 2014 | Featured, US Economy
The last seven months have seen an impressive improvement in US manufacturing. Almost all components of US manufacturing have been growing strongly and the US ISM has staged an impressive comeback from sub-50 in May last year to 57 in December. However, our growth...
Jan 5, 2014 | Featured, US Economy
A nice series of articles from Bloomberg news alerts us to the fact that the Fed is anything but united when it comes to QE. There is consequently ongoing confusion, disagreement and general apprehension surrounding whether and how the Fed is supposed to end QE ....
Dec 19, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
Yesterday’s FOMC saw the first tapering of bond purchases by the Fed, by $10 billion per month. To soothe markets, the Fed also reinforced its forward guidance, making it “stronger and longer”, by a promise to leave the Federal Funds rate close to the zero bound...
Dec 17, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
One of the points we have emphasized to clients in the past two months is that many of our indicators suggest that long rates in the US may not rise as aggressively as the consensus expects. In other words, the Fed might stay more dovish than the market expects and...
Dec 13, 2013 | European Economy, Featured
There is an interesting story this morning on Bloomberg about the travails of European automakers and the strong euro. According to Bloomberg, the already troubled French automaker Peugeot will take a €1.1 bn non-cash charge due to adverse currency fluctuations in...
Dec 10, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
We have showed the charts below to clients in the past few weeks. There are plenty of things to worry about (stretched market, tapering etc), but these charts are worth bearing in mind for those looking to bet heavily against the market in the next few weeks. Their...
