Sep 23, 2016 | Featured, US Economy
The ISM Manufacturing Index came out at the beginning of the month and offers a dim view of the next three months for US manufacturing as well as for stocks. The key data we focus on in the ISM is the relationship between New Orders to Inventory. The ratio leads the...
Jun 29, 2015 | European Economy, Featured
At the start of 2012, Variant Perception’s research team wrote a paper on the best way to break up the euro. A lot has happened since this paper was written. However, it still provides a clear, solid analysis of the problems leading up to the current situation....
Jun 24, 2015 | Featured, Fiscal Policy, UK
The UK’s economy is increasingly beginning to resemble how it looked prior to the financial crisis – this is not healthy and leaves the UK vulnerable to a repeat of the last crisis. In this presentation, we discuss that UK growth did eventually return...
Dec 12, 2014 | Featured, Japan
October saw the BoJ’s announcement of increased stimulus, coordinated with the new targets for the GPIF, 25% each for foreign and domestic equities (up from 12% each), and a decrease in JGBs, from 60% to 35% of holdings. Investors, both Japanese and foreign, have...
Jun 9, 2014 | Featured, Leading Indicators
While markets are fixated on the threat of deflation and “lowflation” (a dumb word if ever there was one), our leading indicators are pointing towards modest core inflation ahead. Furthermore, our leading headline inflation indicator is rising moderately as well. We...
Mar 24, 2014 | Featured, North America, US Economy
One of the points we have been emphasizing to clients in recent months is that US small caps are looking increasingly less attractive compared to large caps. Small caps have benefited from excess liquidity and a belief that as the US economy recovers, smaller...
Mar 20, 2014 | Emerging Markets, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
One of the themes we have been tracking in the past 6 months is the slowdown in global money growth and excess liquidity. The focus on the second derivative is important here. The level of growth in liquidity and money growth indicators is decent but the annual...
Mar 18, 2014 | European Economy, Featured, Leading Indicators
One of the equity themes we have been highlighting in the recent month is ongoing mismatch between high expectations in Europe relative to lacklustre growth in profitability and growth. European equities are overvalued based on what our models are telling us about...
