by Variant Perception | Jul 29, 2018 | Emerging Markets, Featured
We recently published a new white paper on EM Crises. In this report, we look at the history of EM crises. How they unfold, and when they become buying opportunities. EM crises have generated some of the largest market sell-offs in the last 25 years. At the same...
by Variant Perception | Jul 19, 2018 | Asia, Emerging Markets, Featured, Framework
Failing to spot the Asian currency crisis of 1997 would have been disastrous for an investor. In the case of Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, it took almost a decade for equity markets to reach January 1997 levels again in nominal terms. But, how can you see a...
by Variant Perception | Jul 11, 2018 | Featured, Framework
The financial media and economists are almost always late to a trade. That’s because they’re reporting on what has been performing well and are simply extrapolating that performance into the future. Retail stocks are the latest example. There is no shortage of...
by Variant Perception | Jun 13, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, Japan, US Economy, US Equities
Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life… death...
by Bill | Sep 23, 2016 | Featured, US Economy
The ISM Manufacturing Index came out at the beginning of the month and offers a dim view of the next three months for US manufacturing as well as for stocks. The key data we focus on in the ISM is the relationship between New Orders to Inventory. The ratio leads the...
by Bill | Jun 29, 2015 | European Economy, Featured, Framework
At the start of 2012, Variant Perception’s research team wrote a paper on the best way to break up the euro. A lot has happened since this paper was written. However, it still provides a clear, solid analysis of the problems leading up to the current situation....
by Bill | Jun 24, 2015 | Featured, Fiscal Policy, UK
The UK’s economy is increasingly beginning to resemble how it looked prior to the financial crisis – this is not healthy and leaves the UK vulnerable to a repeat of the last crisis. In this presentation, we discuss that UK growth did eventually return...
by Bill | Dec 29, 2014 | Featured
As we head in to 2015, here are the top ten posts from 2014. We wish our readers a Happy New Year! Top 10 Posts of 2014: Profit Margins To Head Lower, Equities To Suffer (May 22nd) Deflation Not A Danger – Modest Inflation With With Wage Growth Ahead (June 9th)...
by Bill | Dec 12, 2014 | Featured, Japan
October saw the BoJ’s announcement of increased stimulus, coordinated with the new targets for the GPIF, 25% each for foreign and domestic equities (up from 12% each), and a decrease in JGBs, from 60% to 35% of holdings. Investors, both Japanese and foreign, have...
