Mar 30, 2021 | Featured, Framework, Uncategorized, US Economy
In the depths of the pandemic and market volatility in April 2020, we released a report for clients recommending screens of stocks that we thought would outperform even if the market had not continued rallying off the March lows. One year on, we review our...
Feb 17, 2021 | Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, Whitepaper
We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle (from a report we issued in October 2020) Main Themes There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen...
Jun 12, 2020 | Featured, Framework
This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put...
Apr 3, 2020 | Featured, Framework, Global Economy, US Economy, Video, Whitepaper
The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to: distinguish...
Mar 15, 2019 | Featured, Framework
Extrapolation has killed more people, companies and portfolios than almost anything else we can think of. You assume that you’ll continue to be healthy until you get that cancer diagnosis or fall to the floor from a heart attack. You assume profits will continue to...
Sep 11, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Whitepaper
Bethany McLean has written a book titled Saudi America on fracking and how it might contribute to the next financial crisis. She writes: Some of fracking’s biggest skeptics are on Wall Street. They argue that the industry’s financial foundation is unstable:...
Jul 29, 2018 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Whitepaper
We recently published a new white paper on EM Crises. In this report, we look at the history of EM crises. How they unfold, and when they become buying opportunities. EM crises have generated some of the largest market sell-offs in the last 25 years. At the...
Jul 19, 2018 | Asia, Emerging Markets, Featured, Framework, Whitepaper
Failing to spot the Asian currency crisis of 1997 would have been disastrous for an investor. In the case of Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, it took almost a decade for equity markets to reach January 1997 levels again in nominal terms. But, how can you see a...
Jul 11, 2018 | Featured, Framework
The financial media and economists are almost always late to a trade. That’s because they’re reporting on what has been performing well and are simply extrapolating that performance into the future. Retail stocks are the latest example. There is no shortage of...
