by Bill | Apr 19, 2012 | European Economy, Featured, Monetary Policy
In our view, the Spanish banking system is in need of wholesale recapitalisation to deal with the sizeable losses in the country’s property market. This will likely include a bad bank provision. Before that happens, the ECB’s open market operations will mainly buy...
by Bill | Apr 5, 2012 | European Economy, Global Economy, Press
Variant Perception had two guest host appearances on the CNBC yesterday. Chief Editor Jonathan Tepper was interviewed in relation to VP being shortlisted for the Wolfson Prize for its piece on how and why the euro might break up. Next up was Head of Research Claus...
by Bill | Mar 19, 2012 | China, Demographics, European Economy
Following the pattern we have identified in other countries in the region, Ukraine is once more getting itself into a deeper and deeper mess. Part of the problem is political, part of it is economic, and part is a combination of the two. Moreover, Ukraine has one of...
by Bill | Mar 5, 2012 | European Economy
Greece is in default and Ireland and Portugal are in limbo with the market pricing in a Greek outcome in both economies. However, the situation has changed in Spain and Italy and on this measure alone, the ECB’s LTRO has been successful. Italian and Spanish bond...
by Bill | Feb 28, 2012 | European Economy
Simon Ward at Money Moves Markets updates us on the latest monetary aggregates from the eurozone and despite strong global growth in excess liquidity and central bank expansion, money growth remains weak in Europe. Going out of 2011, 6 month nominal M1 growth in the...
by Bill | Feb 21, 2012 | European Economy, Press
See original article at http://www.cnbc.com/id/46461291 The second Greek bailout deal was finally clinched in the early hours of Tuesday morning. European markets and the euro were initially expected to rally after the market open – but a troika report leaked to the...
by Bill | Feb 16, 2012 | European Economy, Featured
Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution In this piece we look at the mechanics of a currency breakup and how it would happen. This piece is longer than most of our pieces and is a slightly more wonkish piece than usual, but the first two pages provide a...
by Bill | Feb 14, 2012 | European Economy
Government bond yields have declined substantially in Italy on the back of ECB’s 3Y LTRO as well as the commitment of the new government to austerity. Yet, leading indicators have slumped to a post crisis lows and sustainable growth seems far away as ever. Amid...
by Bill | Jan 3, 2012 | European Economy, Monetary Policy
Since early September the ECB’s balance sheet has expanded by 589 billion euros (about 750 billion USD) and the Fed USD swap lines are currently sitting at around 100 billion USD. The second LTRO to be conducted towards the end of February is then very likely to...
