by Bill | May 31, 2013 | European Economy, Press
Variant Perception’s Claus Vistesen was on BBC World Business this week talking about the eurozone periphery and how governments will be given more time to adjust their budget deficits. You can play the clip here through BBC’s iPlayer (UK viewers only,...
by Bill | Apr 30, 2013 | European Economy, Featured, Fiscal Policy
The spotlight remained on Portugal the end of last week as EU finance ministers agreed to give the country seven more years to repay its stock of existing loans. Still, despite the words of praise showered on the country the deficit containment record has been a...
by Bill | Apr 23, 2013 | China, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
Germany remains the proverbial strong man of Europe, but we are skeptical that this is a fitting moniker. Looking at exports, it is now clear that Germany and thus Europe continues to see weakness. The total value of German exports has now clearly rolled over from its...
by Bill | Mar 22, 2013 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy
France looks increasingly like it is slipping into recession. It is the poorest performing core country – an increasingly inapt label. Highlighting this are the latest PMI numbers. The services PMI, already woefully depressed, slipped lower last month, to...
by Bill | Feb 22, 2013 | European Economy
This weekend’s Italian elections are provoking a good deal of commentary and fueling mounting concern about possible consequences for the European debt crisis, and in particular for the outlook for Italian sovereign spreads in the short term. We think much of this...
by Bill | Feb 12, 2013 | European Economy, Global Economy, Japan, Monetary Policy
The Euro is making headlines again, this time not due to its possible imminent disappearance as a currency but rather as a result of what many regard as its undue strength. Last week’s press briefing comments by ECB President Mario Draghi to the effect that...
by Bill | Jan 28, 2013 | European Economy, Featured, Global Economy
European economies showed further signs of stabilization in January with flash PMIs registering continued strengthening on most fronts (this week will see a number of actual PMI readings). The only noteworthy exception was France where conditions deteriorated further,...
by Bill | Jan 16, 2013 | European Economy
As foreseen in recent updates on Spain, the market for SGBs remains calm and spreads across the maturity horizon are tightening. Last week Spanish ten year yields fell below the 5% mark for the first time since March last year, while two year yields are now hugging...
by Bill | Dec 17, 2012 | European Economy
Events of the last week have once more brought Italy back into the headlines. The decision of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to deny support to the technocratic government of Mario Monti sent alarm bells ringing in markets across the globe. But the excitement...
