by Bill | Feb 24, 2017 | European Economy
(from our Weekly Update of 14th February 2017) Rising inflation in the eurozone is driving real rates lower, widening the rate differential between the EUR and other DM currencies. We look at risk-adjusted real-rate differentials by dividing real-rate differentials by...
by Bill | Nov 4, 2016 | European Economy
(from our Tactical of 18th October 2016) One currency that may buck the trend and remain supported against the dollar is the euro. Although tapering from the ECB does not look imminent, core inflation may start surprising to the upside in the eurozone. The chart...
by Bill | Sep 30, 2016 | European Economy
(from our Tactical of 13th September) Drivers of the euro are showing support. When the ECB in March of this year shifted its emphasis from the rate channel to the credit channel for the transmission of monetary policy, this took a weight off the euro. Since that...
by Bill | Jul 22, 2016 | European Economy
While most of the attention post-Brexit has been on the UK, we are far more concerned about Europe. Markets and the economy operate in a feedback loop, and the performance of European banks relative to the stock market points to a fall in lending ahead in Europe. ...
by Bill | May 20, 2016 | European Economy, Monetary Policy
An ongoing theme we kept coming back to throughout 2015 in the eurozone is that monetary policy tends to either too hot or too cold for the core or periphery. The ECB’s attempts to fight deflation and reflate the periphery have fuelled increases in German mortgages...
by Bill | Apr 22, 2016 | European Economy
One of the aims of loose monetary policy is to boost lending. The theory is lower rates and greater availability of liquidity will encourage lending and borrowing, which in turn will boost economic activity. Unfortunately, an increased supply of loans does not...
by Bill | Jul 29, 2015 | European Economy
For all of Spain’s entrenched structural issues (as we detailed in our April thematic, Spain – Still a Hole in Europe’s Balance Sheet), leading economic data continues to point towards a cyclical recovery in Spain. Real M1 is growing at 15% YoY, consumer confidence is...
by Bill | Jul 15, 2015 | European Economy
The ECB’s commitment to extra loose monetary policy through forward guidance and QE has resulted in the euro to becoming one of the darlings of the funding currencies. US corporates such as Nike, Apple and Coca-Cola have taken advantage of a weak euro to raise the...
by Bill | Jul 7, 2015 | European Economy
If you ignore the ongoing Greek sideshow, rarely has European money growth been as accommodative as it is today. Europe has enormous structural problems of too much debt, an inflexible currency and an ageing population, but cyclical factors are very positive. Leading...
