by Bill | Jun 29, 2015 | European Economy, Featured, Framework
At the start of 2012, Variant Perception’s research team wrote a paper on the best way to break up the euro. A lot has happened since this paper was written. However, it still provides a clear, solid analysis of the problems leading up to the current situation....
by Bill | Apr 24, 2015 | European Economy, Monetary Policy
The sharp devaluation in the euro and the rapid acceleration in economic activity will mean short-term inflation dynamics in the eurozone will soon start surprising to the upside. In this context it is important to remember that the only justification for ECB...
by Bill | Mar 23, 2015 | European Economy
The euro is not an optimal currency area, and monetary policy will be either too hot for the core or too cold for the periphery. Today, monetary policy is too hot for Germany, where we see rising house prices due to a monetary policy that has been geared at the...
by Bill | Jan 19, 2015 | European Economy
The ECB’s loan demand surveys (which lead by about 12 months) have been suggesting higher credit growth ahead for some time (top chart) and there are signs that this may finally be occurring. The bottom chart shows that overall eurozone deposits rose in November,...
by Bill | Oct 29, 2014 | European Economy
Target2 – the payment system used for intra-eurozone transfers – has widened again, with the largest two-month move since mid 2012. A look into its breakdown reveals that it is Italy that is almost completely responsible for the increase in liabilities. Ceteris...
by Bill | Aug 19, 2014 | European Economy
Eurozone growth goes from setback to setback with last week’s GDP number being just the latest in a long line of similar disappointments. Soft indicators have consistently overstated the strength of this year’s recovery, and the unpleasant truth is that as one...
by Bill | Mar 20, 2014 | Emerging Markets, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
One of the themes we have been tracking in the past 6 months is the slowdown in global money growth and excess liquidity. The focus on the second derivative is important here. The level of growth in liquidity and money growth indicators is decent but the annual...
by Bill | Mar 18, 2014 | European Economy, Featured, Leading Indicators
One of the equity themes we have been highlighting in the recent month is ongoing mismatch between high expectations in Europe relative to lacklustre growth in profitability and growth. European equities are overvalued based on what our models are telling us about...
by Bill | Feb 18, 2014 | European Economy, Featured
The composite eurozone January flash PMI showed accelerating expansion led by Germany, but the PMI readings are still only showing moderate growth, considerably below the momentum achieved, for example, in the 2009/2010 green-shoots revival. (click on pictures for...
