Early Signs of Greek Rebound

Another new era dawns for Greece after voters rejected the incumbent hard left Syrzia government at the July 7 general election and voted in the centre-right New Democracy. The economy also, finally, appears to be turning a corner. The Greek treasury tapped a 10-year...

Norges Bank running out of tightening room

At a time when market expectations of G10 monetary policy are rapidly shifting in the direction of fresh policy easing, Norway is a clear outlier. The Norges Bank hiked the deposit rate by 25bps last week and has alluded to the possibility of further hikes going...

Market Pricing Restart of ECB QE

The apparent de-anchoring of market-based inflation expectations has started to rattle the ECB and has raised the spectre of a return to monetary easing, mirroring the abrupt shift in marketimplied policy rate expectations in the US where 65 bps of cuts are now...

Setback to Turkish Recovery

Having appeared to have passed the worst of the economic crisis, Turkey has faced a fresh bout of turbulence in recent weeks. We have revisited our framework for identifying buying opportunities following an EM crisis to gauge Turkey’s position on the recovery path....

Hints of Eurozone Reintegration

The reduction in cross-border financial asset holdings and regional trade across the eurozone are perhaps the most visible scars left from the global financial crisis and subsequent fallout in European sovereign debt markets. Under pressure from national regulators to...

Outsize demand for risky Italian bonds

Going by the strength of demand at recent Italian sovereign bond auctions, it would be easy to forget that the government was recently locked in an acrimonious dispute with Brussels over its budget deficit target for 2019. Now that the budget fiasco has died down,...

Eurozone deflation risk remains

Market momentum is building behind the global growth slowdown narrative, with last week’s downbeat European Commission forecast report triggering a safe-haven bid. The eurozone, in particular, is caught in the crosshairs with the German and Italian economies buckling...