European Property Surge Set to Continue

Aggressive monetary expansion and a slowdown in construction activity have underpinned surging property prices. Both dynamics will keep fuelling the rally In the decade following the global financial crisis, unprecedented low funding costs and the search for yield...

Hidden Risks from ECB’s Pandemic Tools

The ECB’s policy response to the Covid crisis has been game changing, but has also added to the list of risks that undermine financial stability. The disruption to wholesale bank funding is a case in point In the midst of an unprecedented economic contraction, it is...

ECB May End up Absorbing all Government Supply in 2021

The ECB has provided a clear indication that additional stimulus will come in December. A further expansion of PEPP could result in the ECB purchasing most, if not all, of the EGB supply in 2021 Although the ECB left the monetary stance unchanged at their last...

ECB’s Focus Shifting to Bank Lending

The ECB has repeatedly stressed the primacy of its PEPP asset-purchase program in tackling the economic impacts of Covid, despite the importance of the bank-lending channel for the European economy, given the high degree f financial intermediation. The decision taken...

The Quiet March of Financial Repression

Even when the world eventually recovers from lockdown, financial repression will remain a dominant feature of developed-market economies. While markets are immediately focused on how and when economies can escape lockdown, the structural shift towards financial...

Surge in EGB Issuance May Result in Lower 2H20 Supply

January is typically a very busy month for European sovereign issuance as national treasuries kick off their annual funding programmes. This year has seen a marked uptick in supply relative to the previous year as issuers have taken advantage of low borrowing costs to...