SNB may soon come under pressure

We have previously argued that the Swiss National Bank has become slightly more tolerant of modest currency strength, given that the sheer scale of previous FX intervention has dented the central bank’s appetite for further balance sheet expansion. The top-left chart,...

Italian Bond Market Delivers its Warning

While we don’t want to get drawn into the Byzantine world of Italian politics, we do have a thing or two to say about bond markets. What has struck us the most about the Italian bond market has been the degree of volatility in BTPs and drop in liquidity. The first...

Harbinger for Polish Slowdown

On the back of signs that Germany and the eurozone are slowing, we highlight the risk of a drawdown in Polish economic growth. Although Poland is ostensibly a domestic demand-driven economy, it is still highly trade dependent (exports + imports are above 100% of GDP)...

Czech koruna: Pausing for Breath

Since we highlighted the potential of CE3 markets in July 2017 in light of the global reflation trend, our preferred trade – short EURCZK – has made a modest 2.8%. Even after this relatively anaemic rally, we believe that the koruna will now take a breather. As a...

Vulnerabilities in Europe

Sentiment in Europe has soared to its highest level since 2001. However, in Europe as elsewhere, such lofty sentiment should be taken as a warning for markets, not a green light. As we can see from the top-left chart, previous peaks in economic sentiment have...

Turkey: A Recipe for Inflation

On a structural basis, Turkey has consistently been one of the most vulnerable economies to a currency crisis in light of considerable external vulnerabilities, and was flagged again in VP’s September thematic update of our debt and currency crisis framework. However,...
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