by Bill | Mar 20, 2014 | Emerging Markets, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
One of the themes we have been tracking in the past 6 months is the slowdown in global money growth and excess liquidity. The focus on the second derivative is important here. The level of growth in liquidity and money growth indicators is decent but the annual...
by Bill | Feb 26, 2014 | China, Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy
Many emerging markets were in recession last year and are only slowly emerging. Tight financial conditions and flat to inverted yield curves will make the recovery slow and fraught with risks. Global growth will be lower as a result. Flattening and inverted yield...
by Bill | Feb 14, 2014 | China, Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy
The debate on EM economies (and equities) is heating up. Initially this week, we had the financial world equivalent of the pillory with the widely reported closing of a high profile US hedge fund’s EM fund due to heavy losses in 2013. Solemn nodding followed by...
by Bill | Jan 28, 2014 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Tactical
Emerging markets are being blamed on just about all hiccups and bad surprises currently befalling the global economy and financial markets. However, this is slightly unwarranted and, in any case, not consistent with the evidence. Out of the 9 equity markets up on the...
by Bill | Dec 17, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
One of the points we have emphasized to clients in the past two months is that many of our indicators suggest that long rates in the US may not rise as aggressively as the consensus expects. In other words, the Fed might stay more dovish than the market expects and...
by Bill | Nov 4, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
Our real narrow money index continues to decline and is sending an increasingly bearish cyclical signal for the global economy and commodity prices. Our real narrow money index has now declined for 4 months running and is now tracking below 7% for the first time since...
by Bill | Sep 23, 2013 | Emerging Markets, European Economy
Below is an excerpt from our weekly report from last Wednesday. On Friday, Moody’s downgraded Ukraine to Caa1 (from B3), citing plummeting FX reserves, downside risk from future negotiations with the IMF, and Ukraine’s worsening relations with Russia....
by Bill | Aug 29, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
One concrete example where the recent sharp drawdown in the FX rate may herald better times ahead is in Brazil. As in most other emerging markets, a weaker currency is a double – edged sword. If it happens too quickly it can cause a run on FX reserves and add to...
by Bill | Jul 26, 2013 | Asia, Emerging Markets, Global Economy
Since tapering discussions pushed up yields in the US, this has led to a steepening of yield curves across the developed world. The US has seen the greatest steepening, which argues for higher growth in the US ahead. However, the implied tightening in global dollar...
