by Bill | Dec 17, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
One of the points we have emphasized to clients in the past two months is that many of our indicators suggest that long rates in the US may not rise as aggressively as the consensus expects. In other words, the Fed might stay more dovish than the market expects and...
by Bill | Nov 4, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
Our real narrow money index continues to decline and is sending an increasingly bearish cyclical signal for the global economy and commodity prices. Our real narrow money index has now declined for 4 months running and is now tracking below 7% for the first time since...
by Bill | Sep 23, 2013 | Emerging Markets, European Economy
Below is an excerpt from our weekly report from last Wednesday. On Friday, Moody’s downgraded Ukraine to Caa1 (from B3), citing plummeting FX reserves, downside risk from future negotiations with the IMF, and Ukraine’s worsening relations with Russia....
by Bill | Aug 29, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
One concrete example where the recent sharp drawdown in the FX rate may herald better times ahead is in Brazil. As in most other emerging markets, a weaker currency is a double – edged sword. If it happens too quickly it can cause a run on FX reserves and add to...
by Bill | Jul 26, 2013 | Asia, Emerging Markets, Global Economy
Since tapering discussions pushed up yields in the US, this has led to a steepening of yield curves across the developed world. The US has seen the greatest steepening, which argues for higher growth in the US ahead. However, the implied tightening in global dollar...
by Bill | Jul 8, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured
Our leading indicator for Brazil continues to imply significantly higher growth in Brazil and the economy is starting to respond. Of course, recent positive growth surprises have taken a backseat to the increase in EM market volatility . The Brazilian real has...
by Bill | Feb 27, 2013 | Asia, Emerging Markets, Global Economy, UK
The aggregate real global policy rate is still firmly negative due to the commitment to low interest rates in the major G4 economies, Still, we are seeing notable divergence between countries. Emerging economies largely remain among the economies with positive real...
by Bill | Nov 21, 2012 | Emerging Markets, European Economy
While a good deal of investor attention has been focused on the US of late, in the process relegating the EU debt crisis into clear second place, CEE economies have been largely subjected to benign neglect. Arguably this is a mistake, since a lot can be learnt from...
by Bill | Oct 15, 2012 | Asia, Demographics, Emerging Markets
South Korea is still being touted as an emerging market, but this is increasingly becoming a misnomer. The country’s demographics are now increasingly negative and the South Korean society is in the throes of a long and painful economic and demographic...
