EM Capital Outflows Gather Pace

We discussed in April that global reserve assets had begun to fall on an annual basis.  This has continued, and the level of contraction is now as great as it has been since at least 2004. Capital flight from EM is gathering pace as growth slows and fear mounts over...

Turkey’s External Debt Remains Worryingly High

Excerpt from VP Tactical first published on 14th April 2014: We have been flagging Turkey as our top candidate for a currency crisis since we released our Understanding Debt and Currency Crisis thematic in 3Q14.  Although the lira has collapsed from 2.15 then to 2.65...

Emerging Market Valuations Will be Compelling

A weak oil price and a strong dollar rally will put pressure on emerging markets, but valuations for many emerging markets should soon be compelling.  Emerging markets have been in a downtrend relative to the S&P since 2010.  We will likely see further weakness...