by Bill | May 25, 2016 | Emerging Markets
We turned bullish on Brazil back in February. Our leading indicators had been turning up, the effects of previous Selic hikes had begun to recede, and we expected inflation would fall, opening up the path for interest-rate cuts. Year-to-date, Brazil has delivered...
by Bill | Dec 3, 2015 | Emerging Markets
Capital outflows from emerging markets continued into the second quarter of 2015. Once again the outflows mainly emanated from China and from CEE and Russia. The flipside is growth Treasuries held in custody for foreign accounts is stuck at zero percent. This is a...
by Bill | Aug 5, 2015 | Emerging Markets
We discussed in April that global reserve assets had begun to fall on an annual basis. This has continued, and the level of contraction is now as great as it has been since at least 2004. Capital flight from EM is gathering pace as growth slows and fear mounts over...
by Bill | Apr 22, 2015 | Emerging Markets
Excerpt from VP Tactical first published on 14th April 2014: We have been flagging Turkey as our top candidate for a currency crisis since we released our Understanding Debt and Currency Crisis thematic in 3Q14. Although the lira has collapsed from 2.15 then to 2.65...
by Bill | Jan 14, 2015 | Asia, Emerging Markets
A weak oil price and a strong dollar rally will put pressure on emerging markets, but valuations for many emerging markets should soon be compelling. Emerging markets have been in a downtrend relative to the S&P since 2010. We will likely see further weakness...
by Bill | Mar 20, 2014 | Emerging Markets, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
One of the themes we have been tracking in the past 6 months is the slowdown in global money growth and excess liquidity. The focus on the second derivative is important here. The level of growth in liquidity and money growth indicators is decent but the annual...
by Bill | Feb 26, 2014 | China, Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy
Many emerging markets were in recession last year and are only slowly emerging. Tight financial conditions and flat to inverted yield curves will make the recovery slow and fraught with risks. Global growth will be lower as a result. Flattening and inverted yield...
by Bill | Feb 14, 2014 | China, Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy
The debate on EM economies (and equities) is heating up. Initially this week, we had the financial world equivalent of the pillory with the widely reported closing of a high profile US hedge fund’s EM fund due to heavy losses in 2013. Solemn nodding followed by...
by Bill | Jan 28, 2014 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Tactical
Emerging markets are being blamed on just about all hiccups and bad surprises currently befalling the global economy and financial markets. However, this is slightly unwarranted and, in any case, not consistent with the evidence. Out of the 9 equity markets up on the...
