RUBCAD to Catch up to Crude Oil

RUBCAD tends to be a FX pair that’s highly correlated with moves in Brent (top-left chart). The main appeal of RUBCAD as a relative-value trade against crude is that there is much less direct US dollar exposure from the trade. Both Russia and Canada are dependent on...

Fade Bank of Canada Rate Hikes

This post is taken from our March 13th weekly report. In our February Monthly we suggested selling CAD, and buying Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs), the Canadian analogue of Eurodollar futures. With ~64bps of rate rises priced in from the Bank of Canada over the next year,...

Downside Data Surprises Continue in Canada

First Published in 24th March Tactical For the past 6 months, we have been alerting clients to the persistent decline in our Canada leading indicator.  This is now showing up in numerous Canadian coincident data releases, with retail sales being the latest to miss...