by David Hill | May 29, 2019 | Canada
The time to be most concerned with an economy is when cyclical risks align with the structural ones. In Canada there is evidence this is happening. The most overt structural risk in Canada is the huge household debt-to-income ratio, significantly bigger than the US’s,...
by David Hill | Aug 3, 2018 | Canada
RUBCAD tends to be a FX pair that’s highly correlated with moves in Brent (top-left chart). The main appeal of RUBCAD as a relative-value trade against crude is that there is much less direct US dollar exposure from the trade. Both Russia and Canada are dependent on...
by David Hill | Mar 29, 2018 | Canada, North America
This post is taken from our March 13th weekly report. In our February Monthly we suggested selling CAD, and buying Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs), the Canadian analogue of Eurodollar futures. With ~64bps of rate rises priced in from the Bank of Canada over the next year,...
by Bill | Mar 30, 2015 | Canada
First Published in 24th March Tactical For the past 6 months, we have been alerting clients to the persistent decline in our Canada leading indicator. This is now showing up in numerous Canadian coincident data releases, with retail sales being the latest to miss...
