The VP Research Blog
A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework
Outlook stable for Europe and UK consumer
With global trade headwinds intensifying and many governments still reluctant to turn on the spending taps (for now), the burden of growth remains with the consumer. In the eurozone, consumer conditions appear relatively mixed. There is a divergence between soft and...
Remain Selective on EM Debt
We continue to favour EM sovereign debt as an alternative to stretched developed-market debt. We like the higher initial yields on offer and potential capital upside from monetary easing and rolldown from steeper yield curves (top-left chart). If we looked only at...
Dollar to come under growing pressure
Our view on the USD for 2019 was that it would face modest downwards pressure. The pressure has been modest, but it has been to the upside. Nonetheless, overall the dollar (DXY) has been in a tight range this year (~4.5%). Every attempt to the upside has been met by...
Intermarket Gauges suggest recession or risk-on
The S&P has been very resilient this year in the face of slowing growth, falling earnings and trade war uncertainty. However, underneath the surface, market rotations have been very bearish. Over the past year, high-yield credit has underperformed investment grade...
Global Trade Key Driver of EM Returns
Since the peak back in April, most EM equities markets have seen declines or consolidation (top-left chart). The temptation is to view this as a buying opportunity to front-run more aggressive central bank easing (especially from eg the PBoC in China). Although we...
Yields suggest Monetary policy is close to its limits
This post was taken from our weekly report, dated October 15, 2019. In the last month yields have since then done a round trip, falling and then rising again, but crucially term premium (TP) has not fallen. It was TP’s relentless fall through 2019 that meant the...
G3 Central Banks set Tone
The divergence in monetary policy across developed markets since the beginning of 2018 is starting to breakdown as Fed and ECB easing makes it increasingly difficult for the hawkish hold-outs to tighten. Above-target inflation in 2018/early 2019 provided cover for the...
Momentum under fire as confidence softens
With consumer confidence measures released a couple of weeks ago, we have observed an interesting divergence between the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Conference Board consumer confidence index (top-left chart). When we plot the spread and...
ECB piling easing pressure on BoJ
Japanese equities have fallen out of favour with foreign investors over the past four years, since the initial euphoria of Abenomics faded (top-left chart). This has contributed to Japanese equities’ relatively low valuations, with the Topix becoming increasingly...
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