The VP Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Harbinger for Polish Slowdown

On the back of signs that Germany and the eurozone are slowing, we highlight the risk of a drawdown in Polish economic growth. Although Poland is ostensibly a domestic demand-driven economy, it is still highly trade dependent (exports + imports are above 100% of GDP)...

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UK Rates and GBP hit by Disappointing Data

In our March monthly we recommended positioning for lower UK short-term rates based on our weakening long-leading indicator, and we later recommended taking advantage of GBPUSD seasonality - which has seen cable higher in each of the past 13 Aprils - to sell any...

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What’s Good for Workers is Bad for Companies

Recent data from the labour market and the National Federation of Independent Business shows that wages will be picking up quickly this year. The NFIB compensation plans is now at the highest point in the last twenty years. Small businesses expect to raise wages, and...

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Bank of England Mood Changes

This post is taken from our April 24th weekly report. Much like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has been itching to normalise monetary policy following nearly a decade of providing emergency assistance to the economy. Buoyed by the run up in prices over the...

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Czech koruna: Pausing for Breath

Since we highlighted the potential of CE3 markets in July 2017 in light of the global reflation trend, our preferred trade – short EURCZK – has made a modest 2.8%. Even after this relatively anaemic rally, we believe that the koruna will now take a breather. As a...

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Tactical Long in MLPs for April

This post is taken from our weekly report dated April 3rd 2018. In our November 28th 2017 Weekly report, we recommended short-term long MLP positions into year-end on bearish sentiment and fundamental divergence of the MLP index vs crude oil prices. This worked well...

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Worth Revisiting UK Equities

The tectonic political shocks of the last two years have left UK equities feeling unloved. In US dollar terms, UK equities have returned -5% year-to-date, underperforming the majority of developed and major emerging markets (top-left chart). This is despite the...

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The UK’s Deleveraging Failure

The synchronised nature of the global economic recovery has fanned speculation that the post-crisis deleveraging in developed countries has finally come to an end. However, we err on the side of caution and cite evidence from the UK, which suggests there has been...

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