The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Active management most effective in India

Our leading indicators for India continue to fly high, providing a useful lead for Indian equity performance so far this year. Following Modi’s convincing re-election we expect to see a continuation of structural reforms that enhance the productive capacity of India’s...

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Norges Bank running out of tightening room

At a time when market expectations of G10 monetary policy are rapidly shifting in the direction of fresh policy easing, Norway is a clear outlier. The Norges Bank hiked the deposit rate by 25bps last week and has alluded to the possibility of further hikes going...

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Market Pricing Restart of ECB QE

The apparent de-anchoring of market-based inflation expectations has started to rattle the ECB and has raised the spectre of a return to monetary easing, mirroring the abrupt shift in marketimplied policy rate expectations in the US where 65 bps of cuts are now...

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Sky-High Corn Price adds to Inflation Pressures

With the US and Chinese trade positions hardening, market sentiment has swung into risk-off mode with oil sliding, equities weak and USTs bid. Moreover, this has further fuelled speculation that the next move at the Fed will be a cut, with the OIS market now pricing...

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Making the Best of the US-China Trade War

With the US-China trade dispute escalating further, we have returned to our previous analysis on export similarity to gauge the potential winners from a prolonged trade war. China’s exports are predominantly low-to-medium tech, which indicates a potentially high...

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Short CAD on Structural and Cyclical Risks to Canada

The time to be most concerned with an economy is when cyclical risks align with the structural ones. In Canada there is evidence this is happening. The most overt structural risk in Canada is the huge household debt-to-income ratio, significantly bigger than the US’s,...

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Fear and Risks of China Selling its USTs Overblown

The spectre of China selling USTs has risen again as trade tensions between the US and China heighten. The basic assumption is that US rates will go sky-high and the USD would plummet. However, there are several reasons to think the net effect would not be so...

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