12 Years of VP vs Noise
Sharing the ideas and experiences that have influenced our work
Cyclicals Stuck in Second Gear [VIDEO]
Aaran Tian discuss the latest market developments and views on sector rotation (recorded July 17th)
Fed to Keep Rate Vol Based Leading to Higher Vols in Other Assets
Fixed-income volatility, after a brief burst higher in March, has settled back down again. Currency and equity volatility also surged higher earlier this year, but have not fallen back so far, with the VIX remaining at the 90th percentile over the last five years....
Updating the Market Ledger [VIDEO]
The Market Ledger - We discuss a checklist of risks and supports for equity markets (recorded July 10th)
The Quiet March of Financial Repression
Even when the world eventually recovers from lockdown, financial repression will remain a dominant feature of developed-market economies. While markets are immediately focused on how and when economies can escape lockdown, the structural shift towards financial...
Bottoming Economies and Grinding Equities [VIDEO]
Given all of this stress in the economy still, that's still circulating around, how can we weigh that up with our constructive outlook on risk assets in the US?
US Economy Bottoming
The key difference between our recession methodologies and the NBER’s is that we rely on leading indicators to identify the end of a recession in real time, whereas the NBER prefers to wait for confirmation from coincident and lagging data, following data revisions....
US Recession May Be Shorter Than Expected
The official dating body for US recessions, the NBER, announced last month the US reached the peak of its expansion in February and is now contracting. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally...
Plenty of Cover for Fed to Maintain the “Big Ease”
In our Market Ledger, one of the “debits” for the market is chronic insolvency. We have not really begun to see the full impact on jobs and businesses due to improved unemployment benefits, stimulus cheques and business lending schemes, but that will change as...
Global Outlook – June 2020 [VIDEO]
This is a recording of our monthly Global Outlook call for clients, recorded on June 10th, 2020.