12 Years of VP vs Noise

Sharing the ideas and experiences that have influenced our work

Comparing Today’s Markets with 2009 and 2017

The remarkable resilience of equity markets this year, along with the general bullish consensus for 2021, has some parallels with previous price action in 2009 and 2017 In 2009, equity markets rallied against a backdrop of a terrible economy, but rising leading...

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It’s the Most Wonder-bull Time of the Year

Reflation narratives are becoming consensus, but there is little reason to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake Strategists are flooding client inboxes with year-ahead forecasts and themes, and it’s striking how similar the arguments are. The common conclusion from...

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Hidden Risks from ECB’s Pandemic Tools

The ECB’s policy response to the Covid crisis has been game changing, but has also added to the list of risks that undermine financial stability. The disruption to wholesale bank funding is a case in point In the midst of an unprecedented economic contraction, it is...

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Steeper and Cheaper

While further gains will be harder from here, indicators continue to point to a supportive backdrop for yields and the yield curve, with the latter historically tending to steepen through US elections In our October monthly report (The Case for Banks - October 8th...

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Elections Come and Go

The US presidential election on Tuesday is currently the number one event risk for US equities.  But investors should focus on two more important underlying themes: positioning and reflation. Markets haven’t whole-heartedly embraced the reflation trade as money...

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Don’t Fear the Rise in Yields

The last few weeks have seen US yields breakout to the topside of the tight range they have been trading in. The market narrative is that yields have been boosted by more clarity on the US election - a Democrat win with a mooted $3.5 trillion stimulus package in the...

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Too Big to Care

The antitrust report published last week by a House of Representatives subcommittee has set the wheels in motion to tackle anti-competitive behaviours in Big Tech. We think it has little immediate effect for investors today, but the risks are mounting....

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