The VP Research Blog
A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework
US Labour Market Fundamentals Still Poor
Looking beyond cyclical variations, a lingering concern is the structural undercurrents of a continuing falling labour force participation rate and a high long-term unemployment rate. Both paint a rather bleakpicture of the US labour market.
UK Inflation Set to Start Rising Again
UK inflation has been falling, driven mainly by a fall in consumer demand, and last year’s VAT increase falling out of the year-on-year comparisons. Looking under the bonnet, however, reveals a disconnect between inflation of ‘necessary’ and ‘discretionary’ goods.
Fiscal austerity in the eurozone: Spain dissents and Italy delivers, but at a price
Greece is in default and Ireland and Portugal are in limbo with the market pricing in a Greek outcome in both economies. However, the situation has changed in Spain and Italy and on this measure alone, the ECB’s LTRO has been successful.
Monetary Contraction Continues in Europe
Simon Ward at Money Moves Markets updates us on the latest monetary aggregates from the eurozone and despite strong global growth in excess liquidity and central bank expansion, money growth remains weak in Europe. Going out of 2011, 6 month nominal M1 growth in the...
The Slowdown in China Takes a Turn for the Worse
The market has recently taken relief from the decision by China to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) as well as the signal that it will be the first of a series of cuts. The real story however is that the shift comes in response to a sharp slowdown in both domestic and external demand in the first quarter of 2012 and thus it seems that investors may have taken too much comfort in the strong Q4-11 GDP print.
CNBC, Squawk Box: Finally, a Greek Deal: What Next for Markets?
See original article at http://www.cnbc.com/id/46461291 The second Greek bailout deal was finally clinched in the early hours of Tuesday morning. European markets and the euro were initially expected to rally after the market open – but a troika report leaked to the...
CNBC – Squawk Box, Guest Host Appearance
Variant Perception’s Jonathan Tepper will be appearing as a Guest Host on Squawk Box Europe, tomorrow (Tuesday 21st February) from 7am – 9am GMT.
[Updated] See our Press page for part of the interview.
A Primer on the Euro Breakup
Many economists expect catastrophic consequences if any country exits the euro. However, during the past century sixty-nine countries have exited currency areas with little downward economic volatility. The mechanics of currency breakups are complicated but feasible, and historical examples provide a road map for exit.
The real problem in Europe is that EU peripheral countries face severe, unsustainable imbalances in real effective exchange rates and external debt levels that are higher than most previous emerging market crises. Orderly defaults and debt rescheduling coupled with devaluations are inevitable and even desirable. Exiting from the euro and devaluation would …
Austerity hurts in Italy as leading indicators slump to post crisis lows
Government bond yields have declined substantially in Italy on the back of ECB’s 3Y LTRO as well as the commitment of the new government to austerity. Yet, leading indicators have slumped to a post crisis lows and sustainable growth seems far away as ever.
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