The VP Research Blog
A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework
One country very sensitive to economic events in Switzerland, specifically the strength of the CHF, is Hungary. Hungary has a high ratio of loans denominated in a foreign currency – over 60% of GDP – most of which is in Swiss francs. As the HUF weakens, especially if against the CHF, Hungary’s external debt position rapidly worsens. Indeed, the correlation between Hungarian CDS and CHFHUF is as high as it’s been in 2 years.
The US CPI is currently just above target at 2.3%, and long-term market expectations of inflation measured by the US inflation swap curve remains mid-range. This is in stark contrast to all-time lows in nominal treasury yields which appear to be pricing in almost the end of the world.
Variant Perception's Head of Research Claus Vistesen was a guest host on CNBC yesterday (Tuesday) to discuss the ongoing euro debt crisis and the outlook for the global economy given weakening data.
Variant Perception's Chief Editor Jonathan Tepper appeared on Australian based ABC News today to talk about the potential consequences of a country leaving the Euro-zone, and whether it will have a significant impact on the Australian economy in the near term. To view...
The strength of sterling has been in part due to some safe-haven flows from the Middle East (where sometimes GBP is seen as a preferable safe-haven to the USD or CHF), but this is not the fundamental driver.
Variant Perception had one guest host appearance on the CNBC today. Head of Research Claus Vistesen talked about the ECB's rate decision and what it is likely to do in the face of a weakening global economy. We should of course point out that although the Riksbank in...
Variant Perception will have one guest host appearance tomorrow (Thursday May the 3rd) on CNBC. Head of Research Claus Vistesen will be appearing 11.00 GMT to speak about the ECB's rate decision.
Fiscal austerity in the developed world represents a paradox. On one hand, it is necessary as governments had already borrowed too much going into the crisis and can thus no longer continue to lever up to compensate for private deleveraging. On the other hand, the objective of fiscal austerity is to stabilise exploding government debt to GDP ratios, but this is proving difficult as depressing government spending leads to a higher decline in GDP relative to the reduction in the gross debt level.
In our view, the Spanish banking system is in need of wholesale recapitalisation to deal with the sizeable losses in the country’s property market. This will likely include a bad bank provision. Before that happens, the ECB’s open market operations will mainly buy time in the form of liquidity as well as provide banks with money to exchange bad loans for lending to the government.