The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

How To Identify Market Bottoms

This is an excerpt from our "Understanding Market Bottoms" report from April, 2020 Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised in retrospect. But this doesn't make them a quaint academic pursuit.  Knowing a bear market has bottomed gives one...

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Pandemic a Potential Trigger for QE in EM

The unparalleled nature of the response to the COVID-19 crisis – indiscriminately triggering sudden-stops across economies - suggest that some emerging markets could be closer to crossing the Rubicon into full-blown QE. Many EM central banks already purchase...

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Upside Inflation Risks Favour the Value Investor

“All investing is value investing” according to Charlie Munger, with today’s market continuing to offer more value from the mispricing of existing company assets relative to growth assets. Firstly it is important to point out that exceptionally cheap value stocks are...

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Breadth and Level of Stock P/E’s Remains High

The overvaluation from long-term averages for US stocks in recent years has been well known to equity investors. Unfortunately, valuations give you no information on timing - they tell you how far you’re likely to fall, but not when. The virus, specifically the “cure”...

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Brazilian Equities: Pricing in the Bad News

Brazil has so far avoided an aggressive national lockdown, but is nonetheless at the mercy of unprecedented demand destruction in developed markets and the collapse in global commodity prices. With the Bovespa losing 50% of its value in USD terms, the bad news, and...

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