The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Don’t Expect the Summer Doldrums this August

After such a tumultuous start to the year, it would be understandable if the market was even more diligent than usual in switching off this summer. Markets around this time are generally perceived to be quiet anyway, but the lack of liquidity most likely contributes...

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US Economy Bottoming

The key difference between our recession methodologies and the NBER’s is that we rely on leading indicators to identify the end of a recession in real time, whereas the NBER prefers to wait for confirmation from coincident and lagging data, following data revisions....

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US Recession May Be Shorter Than Expected

The official dating body for US recessions, the NBER, announced last month the US reached the peak of its expansion in February and is now contracting. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally...

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