The VP Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Buy the USDCNH Dip

VP’s China leading indicator has shown few signs of rebounding and remains in negative territory, presenting a persistent headwind to the RMB. Historically a negative China LEI has led capital outflow by about 6 months and points to further outflow pressures (top-left...

read more

Trading a Bear Market

This post was taken from our January 8th weekly report. We would characterise US equity indices today as being in a bear market. The official definition is a 20% decline from the recent high, close to close, but what does this mean in practice for investors? (The S&P...

read more

A Brief Bout of Market Optimism

This post was taken from our December 4th weekly report. We wrote last week about the absence of bottoming signals for the S&P. From a price perspective, there was little to suggest a sustainable rally was on the cards, as few of the usual signs of selling exhaustion...

read more

Support for Gold rally is building

Gold has been in a narrow range since mid-August, and is down about 6% YTD in USD terms. It has had several opportunities to sell off more given a hawkish Fed, a rising USD and speculators going net short, but tellingly it has remained quite well supported. Today...

read more

Locals see Opportunity in LATAM

We have previously highlighted that despite the global equity selloff there has been only a marginal decline in flows to emerging market equity ETFs, which suggests that investors remain committed for the time being. We have dug further into fund flows for Brazil and...

read more

Swedish Housing Market Starting to Crumble

We have previously flagged Swedish property as both a precariously overvalued asset and a risk to systemic stability given the high degree of household leverage. The scale and intensity of the Swedish property bubble is reflected in the two charts below. In real terms...

read more

The Italian Doom Loop

With Rome appearing to square off with Brussels over its contentious budget, BTPs have faced considerable pressure and bank stocks have been hammered. This is the nefarious doom loop: Italian banks own a large chunk of Italian government debt and, given the lack of...

read more

Subscribe to VP Lite for blog alerts, regular market themes emails, and more

Company Story