The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Downside Data Surprises Continue in Canada

First Published in 24th March Tactical For the past 6 months, we have been alerting clients to the persistent decline in our Canada leading indicator.  This is now showing up in numerous Canadian coincident data releases, with retail sales being the latest to miss...

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Growing number of lower paid workers in US

The participation rate in the US has declined much less for those at lower levels of education: Source: Macrobond That the lower educated are disproportionately supporting employment growth, through lower paid jobs, may help explain why, so far, we have not seen...

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Eurozone Deposits Growing Again

The ECB’s loan demand surveys (which lead by about 12 months) have been suggesting higher credit growth ahead for some time (top chart) and there are signs that this may finally be occurring.  The bottom chart shows that overall eurozone deposits rose in November,...

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Top Ten Posts of 2014

As we head in to 2015, here are the top ten posts from 2014. We wish our readers a Happy New Year! Top 10 Posts of 2014: Profit Margins To Head Lower, Equities To Suffer (May 22nd) Deflation Not A Danger - Modest Inflation With With Wage Growth Ahead (June 9th)...

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Japanese Equity Flows Diverge

October saw the BoJ’s announcement of increased stimulus, coordinated with the new targets for the GPIF, 25% each for foreign and domestic equities (up from 12% each), and a decrease in JGBs, from 60% to 35% of holdings.  Investors, both Japanese and foreign, have...

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