The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Credit in UK Booming Again; Wage Growth Has Lagged

There are continuing signs the UK’s economy is increasingly resembling itself prior to the financial crisis.  House-price growth has cooled of late, but is still growing at 4.6% YoY, down from almost 12% last summer.  Consumer credit is also growing at a healthy clip,...

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Tactical Buy on NZD

(from our Tactical from 2nd of June) We only have one tactical signal this week, a buy on NZD.  The VP Divergence Signal looks at correlations to detect when an asset is trading out of sync with other related global macro assets.  This provides a good short-term proxy...

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US Growth Coming in As Expected

(The following is from our December Leading Indicator Watch (LIW), released December 4th, 2014.  The LIW is a monthly report giving a summary of all or our main leading indicators, allowing clients to forecast early on where the business cycle in major countries is...

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US Home Prices to Continue to Rise

(from our Leading Indicator Watch from March 5th, 2015) Our leading indicator for US house prices is supportive of an improvement in price growth. One of the inputs that drives our leading index is the number of months’ supply of new homes.  The continued fall in...

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US Manufacturing – More Weakness to Come

US manufacturing has slowed in recent months, and we expect more to come.  We had noted the discrepancy between the PMI and ISM surveys earlier this year as it looked like the ISM was outputting data inconsistent with our leading indicators.  The ISM has now fallen...

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