The VP Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Speculators are giving up on US stock futures

One of the most interesting developments across speculative positioning in the past weeks has been the reversal in net positioning in US stock futures. On an unsmoothed basis speculators most recently turned net short S&P 500 futures for the first time since October 2012 (although they increased their bullish bets slightly following the non-taper at the Fed). On a smoothed basis and including positioning in Dow Jones futures, net long speculative positioning has now declined for 5 months running.

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An Ugly Wager – Is the S&P in a Bubble?

In our latest thematic report, we look at how the unconventional monetary policies of the Fed et al are having distortionary effects on asset markets and increasing their inherent instability. In the classic film The Italian Job, Michael Caine berates his motley crew...

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The Great Brick Wall of China

In this report we discuss the outlook of the Chinese economy across a number of key parameters: re-balancing the economy, the current account/exchange rate and the risks stemming from rapid credit expansion. The central thrust of our argument is that China will not...

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Eurozone Periphery Still at Risk

The cyclical recovery in Europe is real and will likely have further to go in the second half of this year. However, amid upbeat cyclical indicators, it is important to keep a close eye on developments in the periphery and in particular Spain. The process of clearing bad debts is far from over in our view and the idea that Spain has, “turned the corner” lacks logic and evidence.

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