The VP Research Blog
A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework
Upside Inflation Risks Favour the Value Investor
“All investing is value investing” according to Charlie Munger, with today’s market continuing to offer more value from the mispricing of existing company assets relative to growth assets. Firstly it is important to point out that exceptionally cheap value stocks are...
Breadth and Level of Stock P/E’s Remains High
The overvaluation from long-term averages for US stocks in recent years has been well known to equity investors. Unfortunately, valuations give you no information on timing - they tell you how far you’re likely to fall, but not when. The virus, specifically the “cure”...
Brazilian Equities: Pricing in the Bad News
Brazil has so far avoided an aggressive national lockdown, but is nonetheless at the mercy of unprecedented demand destruction in developed markets and the collapse in global commodity prices. With the Bovespa losing 50% of its value in USD terms, the bad news, and...
Global Outlook – April 2020 [VIDEO]
This is a recording of our monthly Global Outlook call for clients, recorded on April 9th, 2020.
False Dawns [VIDEO]
In this video, recorded Friday April, 24th, we discuss bear market rallies. What is the relationship between the market and the economy, and is this a bear market rally or the dawn of a new bull market?
Bear Market Rallies – A Historical Context
There have been five major bear markets in the S&P since the Depression, with each one experiencing rallies along the way that turned out to be false dawns. Each of these rallies felt real at the time, and there was a solid belief that the bad news that caused the...
Volatility Risk Premia and Market Bottoms [VIDEO]
In this video, recorded Friday April, 17th, we highlight some interesting things we've seen in the market, but stick to our overall framework on market bottoms.
What CDS Markets are Discounting
While equities and commodities have collapsed, alongside widening corporate credit spreads, sovereign CDS have not reacted to the coronavirus crisis as might be expected. CDS spreads have widened, but current spreads pale in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis...
Identifying the End of the Recession and Market Bottoms [VIDEO]
In this video recorded on April 3rd, we discuss the various reports we have published over the past few weeks: Recessions and Shocks, Bear Markets, Market Bottoms, and our Leading Indicator Watch report.
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