Blog
Crash and Volatility Warning
We have been warning clients in the past few months that volatility was set to rise towards the middle of the year. We have been flagging the almost parabolic increase in margin debt as well as our leading indicator for equity volatility.
read moreStructural Inflation Pressures Intact in the US
The underlying outlook for inflation in the US continues to point to upside risks in the coming years. Endless discussions between hyperinflationists and deflationists are boring and unproductive. We prefer to look at the data and the data is pretty clear.
read moreEurozone countries given more time to adjust their budget deficits
Variant Perception’s Claus Vistesen was on BBC World Business this week talking about the eurozone periphery and how governments will be given more time to adjust their budget deficits.
read moreAsset Bubbles, Spain, Monetary Policy – Bloomberg Television
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Jonathan Tepper, chief executive officer at research firm Variant Perception, talks about asset bubbles, the Spanish economy and monetary policy. He speaks with Mark Barton and Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source:...
read moreAnti-QE in Japan
Last week’s BoJ meeting did not meet expectations of trying to soothe the Japanese bond market. Yields have shot up, with 10y yields 50% higher in May as of this morning, largely a consequence of the BoJ succeeding in raising inflation expectations. However, of more...
read moreThe Credit Bubble and the Calm Before the Volatility Storm
The developed world remains mired in the debt crisis that roiled the global economy in 2008. Growth is low, and deleveraging is an ongoing process. However, the response by policymakers has been strong, and free money is leading to bubbles, the misallocation of capital and excess leverage. In this note, we lay out a framework and road map for investors to look at the rise and inevitable bursting of the bubble in global corporate bonds. The Fed and the rest of the G4 central banks have created a bubble in the corporate bond market.
read moreWhere Japan Rate Vol Leads, Others Follow
Volatility in general is still falling, with both equity and commodity volatility lower than their 2005/06 trough. However, we are seeing signs of life in interest rate volatility. US rate volatility has recently pipped up, and this has been led by a sharp increase...
read moreStructural labour market issues in the US point to looser for longer at the Fed
Employment in the US is closely watched, especially as the Fed has marked it out as an important factor in how it will judge its stance in monetary policy. Payrolls have improved and the unemployment rate has declined, but structural issues stubbornly remain. The Fed will be alert to these issues, and thus the bar for the removal of stimulus is very high, despite repeated murmurings of ‘tapering’ and a tightening in monetary conditions.
read moreNYSE Margin Debt Going Parabolic Signals Increased Risks for Equities
In the short run, it is difficult to see what can stop equities at this point. Low inflation, central bank support and relatively robust economic data have created a Goldilocks scenario for equities. However, perhaps as a result it is worthwhile looking at what could go wrong. One of the more important intermediate indicators on the equity market is derived from the stock of US margin debt at the NYSE.
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