12 Years of VP vs Noise

Sharing the ideas and experiences that have influenced our work

Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK

The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over After a wobbly start to...

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Equities and Yield Regimes

We look at the performance of equities and intermarket relationships across different real yield and inflation breakeven regimes. Today, real yields are starting to drive changes in nominal yields, which is supportive for equity gains In a recent report for clients,...

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Food Inflation Tailrisks

Food prices are correlated with EM inflation surprises. The current surge in soft grain prices should be monitored in case it spills over into general inflation expectations Food inflation can have outsized impacts on inflation expectations due to the higher frequency...

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The Next Commodity Supercycle

There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: (1) The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s, (2) Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation, (3) Commodities are generationally cheap, both compared to themselves and to other assets

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Stay Cautious on UK Stocks

UK equity valuations are among the lowest in DM, but caution is still warranted. We wait for an upturn in our LEI before considering longs in UK domestic stocks UK-specific risks subsided sharply following the conclusion of a bilateral trade deal with the EU at the...

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Brazilian Real Pressures Starting to Ease

A rebound in economic activity and near-term stabilisation in the fiscal accounts has alleviated pressure on the Brazilian real Although the economic outlook in Brazil remains shrouded in uncertainty as the Covid pandemic continues to rage, pressures on the currency...

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