The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Fear and Risks of China Selling its USTs Overblown

The spectre of China selling USTs has risen again as trade tensions between the US and China heighten. The basic assumption is that US rates will go sky-high and the USD would plummet. However, there are several reasons to think the net effect would not be so...

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Real-Estate excesses building in UK

Net capital issuance (gross issues less repayments) in the UK has been relatively bumpy since the financial crisis as deleveraging in the financial sector has resulted in prolonged negative net issuance. However, net issuance has turned positive since the beginning of...

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Setback to Turkish Recovery

Having appeared to have passed the worst of the economic crisis, Turkey has faced a fresh bout of turbulence in recent weeks. We have revisited our framework for identifying buying opportunities following an EM crisis to gauge Turkey’s position on the recovery path....

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Complacency sees Vol Sellers Return in Numbers

Short volatility positions are back at extreme levels once again, showing the growth of complacency among market participants. The more dovish than expected Fed has allowed volatility sellers to become more emboldened, and speculative VIX future positions are back up...

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Hints of Eurozone Reintegration

The reduction in cross-border financial asset holdings and regional trade across the eurozone are perhaps the most visible scars left from the global financial crisis and subsequent fallout in European sovereign debt markets. Under pressure from national regulators to...

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Use Risk Rally to buy Default Protection

This post was taken from our March 5th weekly report. In line with rebounding equity markets following the 4Q18 correction, credit risk-premia have compressed sharply. This is particularly notable for the big political risk plays of 2018. UK CDS spreads have narrowed...

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