12 Years of VP vs Noise
Sharing the ideas and experiences that have influenced our work
How To Identify Market Bottoms
This is an excerpt from our "Understanding Market Bottoms" report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom....
Assessing the Market Ledger [VIDEO]
In this video we discuss the main takeaways from our latest Leading Indicator Watch, The Great Wedge.
Pandemic a Potential Trigger for QE in EM
The unparalleled nature of the response to the COVID-19 crisis – indiscriminately triggering sudden-stops across economies - suggest that some emerging markets could be closer to crossing the Rubicon into full-blown QE. Many EM central banks already purchase...
Revisiting Lessons from China 2015 Market Rescue
The collision of two powerful and opposing forces has created an uncertain outlook for equity markets. Aggressive stimulus from the Fed - which Powell says has “no limits” - has caused the monetary base to surge relative to the equity market cap (top-left chart),...
Fed Leaves Markets in the Balance [VIDEO]
There is still a huge amount of uncertainty, and at this point the outcomes are extraordinarily wide. Our current views.
Upside Inflation Risks Favour the Value Investor
“All investing is value investing” according to Charlie Munger, with today’s market continuing to offer more value from the mispricing of existing company assets relative to growth assets. Firstly it is important to point out that exceptionally cheap value stocks are...
Breadth and Level of Stock P/E’s Remains High
The overvaluation from long-term averages for US stocks in recent years has been well known to equity investors. Unfortunately, valuations give you no information on timing - they tell you how far you’re likely to fall, but not when. The virus, specifically the “cure”...
Brazilian Equities: Pricing in the Bad News
Brazil has so far avoided an aggressive national lockdown, but is nonetheless at the mercy of unprecedented demand destruction in developed markets and the collapse in global commodity prices. With the Bovespa losing 50% of its value in USD terms, the bad news, and...
Global Outlook – April 2020 [VIDEO]
This is a recording of our monthly Global Outlook call for clients, recorded on April 9th, 2020.