The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

SNB may soon come under pressure

We have previously argued that the Swiss National Bank has become slightly more tolerant of modest currency strength, given that the sheer scale of previous FX intervention has dented the central bank’s appetite for further balance sheet expansion. The top-left chart,...

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Capital Committed to EM for the time being

In an almost textbook fashion, a stronger dollar and rising US rates has triggered a broad emerging market sell-off and surge in volatility. However, somewhat atypically there is little evidence so far of foreign capital bolting for the exit, despite the gradual...

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EM Credit Risk faces Repricing

Credit risk in emerging markets has long been mispriced as the impact of unprecedented monetary stimulus and record low policy rates seemingly placated concerns about higher leverage. However, with the rise in US rates claiming its first casualties (Argentina and...

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Yield Curve: Forwards Hold some Clues

The 2s10s yield curve continues to grind incrementally lower, but negative carry is becoming a formidable headwind. One year carry on this part of the curve is a punitive 28bps. We are also seeing the forward yield curve struggling to flatten any more (top-left...

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Is Fracking Viable?

Bethany McLean has written a book titled Saudi America on fracking and how it might contribute to the next financial crisis. She writes:   Some of fracking’s biggest skeptics are on Wall Street. They argue that the industry’s financial foundation is unstable:...

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PBoC to take CNHKRW Higher

This post is taken from our August 7th weekly report. USDCNH breached the 6.90 mark last week, having been under 6.30 just four months ago. This 10% depreciation has come against a backdrop of slowing Chinese growth and escalating US trade tensions. Although there...

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China Losing its Edge on Exports

The meteoric rise in Chinese exports now appears to be losing steam with world export market share falling by 1%-point over the last two years and potentially mirroring Japan’s long-term retrenchment. While the sluggish pace of world trade growth since 2008 has...

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If China loses, who wins?

With China taking the brunt of the escalating trade war, we have identified several economies that could benefit from China’s loss (assuming that President Trump continues to focus on China and does not pursue blanket tariffs on all exporting nations). To gauge this,...

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