Market health warnings

Variant Perception keeps clients informed of market themes, trading strategies and tactics.  For example, here is something we wrote for clients on August 12th before the recent market correction. If you would like to become a client, please contact...

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EM Capital Outflows Gather Pace

We discussed in April that global reserve assets had begun to fall on an annual basis.  This has continued, and the level of contraction is now as great as it has been since at least 2004. Capital flight from EM is gathering pace as growth slows and fear mounts over...

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Spanish Economy Remains on Cyclical Upswing

For all of Spain’s entrenched structural issues (as we detailed in our April thematic, Spain – Still a Hole in Europe’s Balance Sheet), leading economic data continues to point towards a cyclical recovery in Spain. Real M1 is growing at 15% YoY, consumer confidence is...

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Keep Your Eyes On Aussie Housing Leading Indicators

(from our Tactical from July 14th) We continue to focus on Australian housing leading indicators to help with timing on our structurally bearish Australia outlook, set out in our March thematic Aussie Housing and Banking Boomerang.  Lower rates in Australia are...

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Investors fully invested, but negative

We have a buy signal on AAII sentiment. Bearish retail sentiment often offers contrarian signals to enter the market and as the top two chart shows there are very few bears at the moment according to the AAII survey. This argues for a short term bounce. However,...

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Money surges in Europe, growth to follow

If you ignore the ongoing Greek sideshow, rarely has European money growth been as accommodative as it is today. Europe has enormous structural problems of too much debt, an inflexible currency and an ageing population, but cyclical factors are very positive. Leading...

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A Primer on the Euro Breakup

Many economists expect catastrophic consequences if any country exits the euro. However, during the past century sixty-nine countries have exited currency areas with little downward economic volatility. The mechanics of currency breakups are complicated but feasible, and historical examples provide a road map for exit.

The real problem in Europe is that EU peripheral countries face severe, unsustainable imbalances in real effective exchange rates and external debt levels that are higher than most previous emerging market crises. Orderly defaults and debt rescheduling coupled with devaluations are inevitable and even desirable. Exiting from the euro and devaluation would …

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