The VP Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

UK Housing Market Close to Bottom

The UK’s love affair with housing isn’t over, but it has certainly cooled of late. A combination of increased stamp duty on second homes, fewer tax breaks for buy-to-let landlords, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit have all served to take some of the froth out of...

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Italian Bond Market Delivers its Warning

While we don’t want to get drawn into the Byzantine world of Italian politics, we do have a thing or two to say about bond markets. What has struck us the most has been the degree of volatility in BTPs and drop in liquidity. The first chart below shows that the daily...

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Harbinger for Polish Slowdown

On the back of signs that Germany and the eurozone are slowing, we highlight the risk of a drawdown in Polish economic growth. Although Poland is ostensibly a domestic demand-driven economy, it is still highly trade dependent (exports + imports are above 100% of GDP)...

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UK Rates and GBP hit by Disappointing Data

In our March monthly we recommended positioning for lower UK short-term rates based on our weakening long-leading indicator, and we later recommended taking advantage of GBPUSD seasonality - which has seen cable higher in each of the past 13 Aprils - to sell any...

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