The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

The Big Imbalance – US-China

The US and China recoveries are tied at the hip. Both countries responded to the pandemic in ways that suited them, with the consequence the global trade imbalance is now essentially a bilateral one between the US and China.  The plunge in global trade has reduced...

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Inflationary Build-up in EMs

As has been the case in developed markets, policymakers in emerging markets have been quick to deliver monetary stimulus in the face of an unprecedented global health pandemic. While necessary to avert a deeper drawdown in economic activity, the indiscriminate...

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Global Outlook – August 2020 [VIDEO]

This is a recording of our monthly Global Outlook call for clients, recorded on August 13th, 2020. Key themes: - Investment theme #1: bullish commodities and oil - Investment theme #2: prefer cyclicals vs defensives - Investment theme #3: volatility hedges -...

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Lockdown Threat = A Two-Speed Economy and Market

Inequalities that existed before this crisis have been amplified by it. One place where this is prominent is in markets. Interest-rate sensitive sectors are seeing a marked outperformance due to their heightened sensitivity to liquidity. Technology has also benefited...

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