The VP Research Blog
A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework
US Recession May Be Shorter Than Expected
The official dating body for US recessions, the NBER, announced last month the US reached the peak of its expansion in February and is now contracting. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally...
Plenty of Cover for Fed to Maintain the “Big Ease”
In our Market Ledger, one of the “debits” for the market is chronic insolvency. We have not really begun to see the full impact on jobs and businesses due to improved unemployment benefits, stimulus cheques and business lending schemes, but that will change as...
Global Outlook – June 2020 [VIDEO]
This is a recording of our monthly Global Outlook call for clients, recorded on June 10th, 2020.
Revisiting the Investing Roadmap [VIDEO]
In this video we discuss recent observations in markets. Is the 2020 bear market and recovery just a blip in history?
How To Identify Market Bottoms
This is an excerpt from our "Understanding Market Bottoms" report from April, 2020 Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised in retrospect. But this doesn't make them a quaint academic pursuit. Knowing a bear market has bottomed gives one...
Assessing the Market Ledger [VIDEO]
In this video we discuss the main takeaways from our latest Leading Indicator Watch, The Great Wedge.
Pandemic a Potential Trigger for QE in EM
The unparalleled nature of the response to the COVID-19 crisis – indiscriminately triggering sudden-stops across economies - suggest that some emerging markets could be closer to crossing the Rubicon into full-blown QE. Many EM central banks already purchase...
Revisiting Lessons from China 2015 Market Rescue
The collision of two powerful and opposing forces has created an uncertain outlook for equity markets. Aggressive stimulus from the Fed - which Powell says has “no limits” - has caused the monetary base to surge relative to the equity market cap (top-left chart),...
Fed Leaves Markets in the Balance [VIDEO]
There is still a huge amount of uncertainty, and at this point the outcomes are extraordinarily wide. Our current views.
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