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The Anatomy of a Bubble
In addition to our usual shorter blog posts, we will be posting a series of longer, more in-depth posts that illustrate our framework, and explain how we look at markets and the economy. In this first post, we tour through the work of Hyman Minsky and Charles...
read moreDollar Very Stretched to the Downside
The DXY index has fallen in a straight line this year, with the Sharpe ratio of the YTD move at almost 2.4. Although we have been bearish on the dollar from a macro point of view since last year, the dollar does look vulnerable at present to a short squeeze. The top...
read moreBoJ to Keep Loose As No Immediate Sign of Target CPI
The set-up in Japan continues to favour a weaker yen. Inflation is coming, but the BoJ will want to be sure the train has arrived at the station before stepping off at the monetarytightening platform. The top-left chart shows the lagged effects of a weaker yen should...
read moreRising Stress Levels in UK Households
Over 60% of the increase in GDP since 2010 has been driven by household expenditure. While nominal household consumption has increased by 25% since 2010, gross disposable income is up just 19%, with the financing gap bridged with unsecured leverage and a drawdown in...
read moreHeadwinds for Housing and Autos
Earlier this year we wrote a Thematic piece on autos arguing that we would see auto companies cut prices to move inventory, idle plants and produce fewer cars. We have already seen a slowdown in car sales, and some manufacturers have guided to lower production this...
read moreFinancial Balkanisation of the Eurozone
Convergence in core-periphery sovereign credit spreads since 2012 would seem to vindicate the raft of monetary easing measures deployed by the ECB to stabilise the eurozone. This is only half the story, and the other half is decidedly negative. The eurozone collapse...
read moreEM and China Driving Global Credit Growth
The macro-economic landscape has profoundly changed since the financial crisis. Developed markets deleveraged, and emerging markets became the engine of global credit and money growth. The top-left chart from the BIS shows this very clearly. EMEs (emerging market...
read moreDollar and Euro Cross-Border Leverage
BIS data allow one to see where foreign leverage is building up, and in what currency. Over half of cross-border banking claims are in USD, which represents a large structural short for the USD. Any financial panic that spreads globally is highly likely to kickstart a...
read moreAnother Nail in the Reflation Coffin: Real Yield Curves
Although coincident growth data is holding up for now, there are a number of macro “red flags” at present, in particular flattening yield curves (despite the recent bounce, US 2s10s is still 34bps flatter YTD) and falling excess-liquidity conditions. Yield curves are...
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