The VP Research Blog
A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework
Revisiting Lessons from China 2015 Market Rescue
The collision of two powerful and opposing forces has created an uncertain outlook for equity markets. Aggressive stimulus from the Fed - which Powell says has “no limits” - has caused the monetary base to surge relative to the equity market cap (top-left chart),...
Fed Leaves Markets in the Balance
There is still a huge amount of uncertainty, and at this point the outcomes are extraordinarily wide. Our current views.
Upside Inflation Risks Favour the Value Investor
“All investing is value investing” according to Charlie Munger, with today’s market continuing to offer more value from the mispricing of existing company assets relative to growth assets. Firstly it is important to point out that exceptionally cheap value stocks are...
Breadth and Level of Stock P/E’s Remains High
The overvaluation from long-term averages for US stocks in recent years has been well known to equity investors. Unfortunately, valuations give you no information on timing - they tell you how far you’re likely to fall, but not when. The virus, specifically the “cure”...
Brazilian Equities: Pricing in the Bad News
Brazil has so far avoided an aggressive national lockdown, but is nonetheless at the mercy of unprecedented demand destruction in developed markets and the collapse in global commodity prices. With the Bovespa losing 50% of its value in USD terms, the bad news, and...
Global Outlook – April 2020 [VIDEO]
This is a recording of our monthly Global Outlook call for clients, recorded on April 9th, 2020.
False Dawns [VIDEO]
In this video, recorded Friday April, 24th, we discuss bear market rallies. What is the relationship between the market and the economy, and is this a bear market rally or the dawn of a new bull market?
Bear Market Rallies – A Historical Context
There have been five major bear markets in the S&P since the Depression, with each one experiencing rallies along the way that turned out to be false dawns. Each of these rallies felt real at the time, and there was a solid belief that the bad news that caused the...
Volatility Risk Premia and Market Bottoms [VIDEO]
In this video, recorded Friday April, 17th, we highlight some interesting things we've seen in the market, but stick to our overall framework on market bottoms.
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