Blog

Vulnerabilities in Europe

Sentiment in Europe has soared to its highest level since 2001. However, in Europe as elsewhere, such lofty sentiment should be taken as a warning for markets, not a green light. As we can see from the top-left chart, previous peaks in economic sentiment have...

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Turkey: A Recipe for Inflation

On a structural basis, Turkey has consistently been one of the most vulnerable economies to a currency crisis in light of considerable external vulnerabilities, and was flagged again in VP’s September thematic update of our debt and currency crisis framework. However,...

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MLP Diverges from Crude and Credit Markets

There is a notable divergence between how energy Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are trading in the US compared with the crude oil and high yield markets. Energy MLPs tend to be highly sensitive to credit market conditions as well as commodity prices. The top two...

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Maintain Bearish Idea on EURUSD

Real rate differentials continue to suggest EURUSD has more downside. We have two ways of looking at real rate differentials. The top left chart shows the 2 year rate differentials deflated using CPI. The top right chart takes the same data but also divides the real...

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Data Confirms Short View on Australian Dollar

We have been bearish on the Australian dollar for structural reasons for most of this year. Iron ore prices fell away in September due to China’s attempts to fight pollution as well as over-supply from Australia. More recently, we have seen coincident data rolling...

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Variant Perception’s Leading Indicator Watch

Each month, we produce a report which we call our Leading Indicator Watch. In it we update all our main leading indicators that give us leads on global growth, liquidity, commodities, US growth, US consumption, US manufacturing, corporate profits, volatility and...

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