The VP Research Blog

A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework

Too Big to Care

The antitrust report published last week by a House of Representatives subcommittee has set the wheels in motion to tackle anti-competitive behaviours in Big Tech. We think it has little immediate effect for investors today, but the risks are mounting....

read more

Turkey and Hungary’s Harbinger Hikes

Given the scale of demand destruction in the wake of the global health pandemic, central banks should be nowhere near tightening monetary policy. For those that are, policy rate hikes are indicative of intensifying currency stresses and risks of a destabilising...

read more

ECB’s Focus Shifting to Bank Lending

The ECB has repeatedly stressed the primacy of its PEPP asset-purchase program in tackling the economic impacts of Covid, despite the importance of the bank-lending channel for the European economy, given the high degree f financial intermediation. The decision taken...

read more

What They Will Do vs What They Should Do

Governments are becoming very concerned about the resurgence in virus cases seen since summer. In context, the rise in cases should not be too alarming. More testing means more cases will be found, and the relatively high false positive rate for the most common tests...

read more

The Big Imbalance – US-China

The US and China recoveries are tied at the hip. Both countries responded to the pandemic in ways that suited them, with the consequence the global trade imbalance is now essentially a bilateral one between the US and China.  The plunge in global trade has reduced...

read more

Inflationary Build-up in EMs

As has been the case in developed markets, policymakers in emerging markets have been quick to deliver monetary stimulus in the face of an unprecedented global health pandemic. While necessary to avert a deeper drawdown in economic activity, the indiscriminate...

read more

Global Outlook – August 2020 [VIDEO]

This is a recording of our monthly Global Outlook call for clients, recorded on August 13th, 2020. Key themes: - Investment theme #1: bullish commodities and oil - Investment theme #2: prefer cyclicals vs defensives - Investment theme #3: volatility hedges -...

read more

Subscribe to VP Lite for blog alerts, regular market themes emails, and more

Company Story