The VP Research Blog
A blog about financial markets and the VP investing framework
Challenging the USD Consensus [VIDEO]
Simon and Aaran discuss VP's views on the US dollar (recorded July 24th)
Don’t Expect the Summer Doldrums this August
After such a tumultuous start to the year, it would be understandable if the market was even more diligent than usual in switching off this summer. Markets around this time are generally perceived to be quiet anyway, but the lack of liquidity most likely contributes...
Cyclicals Stuck in Second Gear [VIDEO]
Aaran Tian discuss the latest market developments and views on sector rotation (recorded July 17th)
Fed to Keep Rate Vol Based Leading to Higher Vols in Other Assets
Fixed-income volatility, after a brief burst higher in March, has settled back down again. Currency and equity volatility also surged higher earlier this year, but have not fallen back so far, with the VIX remaining at the 90th percentile over the last five years....
Updating the Market Ledger [VIDEO]
The Market Ledger - We discuss a checklist of risks and supports for equity markets (recorded July 10th)
The Quiet March of Financial Repression
Even when the world eventually recovers from lockdown, financial repression will remain a dominant feature of developed-market economies. While markets are immediately focused on how and when economies can escape lockdown, the structural shift towards financial...
Bottoming Economies and Grinding Equities [VIDEO]
Given all of this stress in the economy still, that's still circulating around, how can we weigh that up with our constructive outlook on risk assets in the US?
US Economy Bottoming
The key difference between our recession methodologies and the NBER’s is that we rely on leading indicators to identify the end of a recession in real time, whereas the NBER prefers to wait for confirmation from coincident and lagging data, following data revisions....
Preparing for a Choppy August [VIDEO]
Simon and Aaran talk about August volatility and how VP is trying to cut through the Covid noise with VP Recovery dashboards. (recorded July 31st)
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