The VP Blog

A blog about financial markets and our investing framework

Italian Bond Market Delivers its Warning

While we don’t want to get drawn into the Byzantine world of Italian politics, we do have a thing or two to say about bond markets. What has struck us the most has been the degree of volatility in BTPs and drop in liquidity. The first chart below shows that the daily...

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Harbinger for Polish Slowdown

On the back of signs that Germany and the eurozone are slowing, we highlight the risk of a drawdown in Polish economic growth. Although Poland is ostensibly a domestic demand-driven economy, it is still highly trade dependent (exports + imports are above 100% of GDP)...

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UK Rates and GBP hit by Disappointing Data

In our March monthly we recommended positioning for lower UK short-term rates based on our weakening long-leading indicator, and we later recommended taking advantage of GBPUSD seasonality - which has seen cable higher in each of the past 13 Aprils - to sell any...

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What’s Good for Workers is Bad for Companies

Recent data from the labour market and the National Federation of Independent Business shows that wages will be picking up quickly this year. The NFIB compensation plans is now at the highest point in the last twenty years. Small businesses expect to raise wages, and...

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BoE Mood Changes

This post is taken from our April 24th weekly report. Much like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has been itching to normalise monetary policy following nearly a decade of providing emergency assistance to the economy. Buoyed by the run up in prices over the...

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