Variant Perception

Empirical | Repeatable | Actionable

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Executive Summary

For time-constrained investors, Variant Perception offers an intuitive investment portal with tools and analysis to speed up the investment process.

Backed by more than a decade of R&D and the latest quantitative techniques, we are a full-stack research solution for our clients, from pensions and family offices to macro hedge funds and fundamental equity investors.

VP's analytical process is empirical and repeatable: "man plus machine beats man or machine alone".

Empirical Philosophy

VP Cookbook
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Our cookbooks outline the key principles that influence how we approach markets and building models.

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In this series of reports, we describe how we think about fundamental economic and market concepts.

Repeatable Models

Process Review
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We review our performance, ask what went well and what went wrong, and how we can improve our process and models.

Structural Indicators
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Modeling long term themes like demographics, capital cycles, debt and currency crises. Our long-term models work over horizons of 2-3 years and beyond.

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We create leading indicators for inflation, growth and liquidity. These allow us to navigate the business cycle over
6-12 months.

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Our tactical indicators and signals help clients with short term positioning. These signals are useful over time horizons of days and weeks.

Macro Snapshot
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A monthly overview of market drivers, critical indicators, and key investment views.

Actionable Ideas

Asset Allocation
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We bring together our core views and investment ideas. The portfolio is created by balancing time horizons and sizing positions appropriately.

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Qualitative research together with our models allow us to find the next big investment theme. We have covered Shale, Biotech, and the Commodity Super Cycle.

Portfolio Watch
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We write up investment ideas that emerge from our tactical and cyclical indicators. We also discuss current market drivers.

Empirical. Repeatable. Actionable.


Investment Portal

Tools and analysis to speed up the investment process

On-demand access to VP’s multi-asset investment tools across three time-horizons; the tactical (1-3 months), the cyclical (6-12 months), and the structural (2-3 years).


Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep dive

We've covered Capital Cycles, The Age of Scarcity, Political Economy, Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out.
Sample: Volatility and Forest Fires - Understanding VolatilitySample: Capital Cycle RV Opportunities and Japanese Insurer Deep-dive

Portfolio Watch

Actionable ideas powered by VP's leading indicators

We leverage VP’s growth, inflation and liquidity indicators to track changes in the 6-12 month outlook. Each week, we reflect on market action, review ideas and make tactical (1-3 month) recommendations.

Sample: Add back equity hedges/shorts + debunking NFPs
Sample: Equity Squeeze and Yield Plateau