Brazil is suffering the worst drought in a century, after its crops were scorched and frozen earlier in the year.  Agricultural commodities prices are spiking, forcing the UN world price index 33% higher vs 12 months ago.  EM inflation baskets generally have a much higher weighting of food prices compared to DMs, which has accelerated hiking cycles across EMs.  Global liquidity conditions are tightening and there is increasing evidence that inflationary pressures won’t subside easily.

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception

For more on Brazil’s agricultural shock, please see this Bloomberg post.

 

Get the full picture at variantperception.com.