The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters.

Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to:

  • distinguish between recessions and novel exogenous shocks
  • show that markets tend not to front-run novel exogenous shocks in the same way they try to front-run ordinary business cycles or earnings cycles
  • show that a tangible improvement in the underlying event is usually needed before we get a trade

The report can be viewed below. The following video is a recording of a call we hosted last week on the same report.


Full Report