Financial conditions are slowly but surely tightening.  We have had one actual rate hike by the Fed, but conditions had begun to tighten before this. This is primarily a developed market phenomenon. Real M1 for the G7 has been trending down for the past 6 months.


Source: Bloomberg and Variant Perception

The global real rate has been close to 0% since last summer, after being firmly negative for much of the previous 6 years.


Source: Bloomberg and Variant Perception

Finally, the yield curve, one of the best indicators of financial conditions and future economic activity, has been flattening in the US for much of the last 2 years, and is currently consistent with a Fed rate of about 2.5% points higher.


Source: Macrobond and Variant Perception